Methodology

Every probability you see on Future Times comes from real prediction markets. Here's how we source, verify, and present that data.

What Are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where participants buy and sell contracts that pay out based on the outcomes of real-world events. If you believe an event has a 70% chance of occurring, you can buy a contract at a price reflecting that probability. If you're right, you profit; if you're wrong, you lose your stake.

This mechanism creates a powerful incentive for accuracy. Unlike polls, punditry, or expert panels, prediction markets aggregate information from people who have financial skin in the game. Research consistently shows they produce well-calibrated probability estimates — often outperforming traditional forecasting methods.

Our Sources

We draw data from multiple prediction market platforms:

• Polymarket — The largest crypto-based prediction market, with deep liquidity on geopolitical, economic, and political events.
• Manifold — A play-money platform with broad topic coverage and rapid market creation, useful for emerging stories.
• Metaculus — A forecasting platform that aggregates predictions from a calibrated community of forecasters, often used for longer-term and scientific questions.

When possible, we cross-reference probabilities across multiple platforms. Where only one source is available, we note it clearly.

What the Numbers Mean

A probability of 67% means that prediction market participants collectively believe there is roughly a two-in-three chance the event will occur. It does not mean it will happen — only that the weight of money and information currently points in that direction.

Probabilities change constantly as new information arrives. A 67% today could become 45% tomorrow if circumstances shift. Our Market Signals bar and article probabilities are updated regularly to reflect the latest data.

Editorial Process

We don't simply republish prediction market numbers. Our editorial process adds context, analysis, and narrative:

1. We identify significant probability movements or noteworthy market levels.
2. Our research team investigates the underlying factors driving the probability.
3. Writers produce analysis that contextualises the number within the broader news landscape.
4. Editors review for accuracy, balance, and clarity before publication.
5. Published articles are monitored and updated when probabilities shift materially.

Limitations

Prediction markets are powerful but imperfect tools. Key limitations include:

• Liquidity — Thin markets (with few traders) can produce volatile or unreliable probabilities. We flag low-liquidity markets where relevant.
• Manipulation — Large traders can temporarily move markets. We monitor for unusual activity and note it when detected.
• Resolution risk — Markets are only as good as their resolution criteria. Ambiguous market definitions can distort prices.
• Coverage gaps — Not every important question has an active prediction market. We focus on topics with sufficient market depth.

Update Frequency

Market signal data in the top bar updates throughout the day. Article probabilities are checked and updated at least daily, and more frequently during fast-moving events. Each article displays the time of its last probability update.