Brent has shed its war premium on hopes that the midterm defeat forces a deal. But the political and physical halves of peace run on different clocks, and traders expect months between them.

AI-generated "workslop" — output that looks competent but fails on inspection — is now documented as a structural drag on enterprise productivity. The problem is not that models are bad; it is that mandated adoption outran the human infrastructure needed to review their outputs.

AI is disrupting white-collar cognitive work before blue-collar trades, inverting the pattern of every prior automation wave. A three-layer framework explains why economists disagree and who faces displacement first.