Geopolitics & Conflict
Geopolitics
Iran's Invisible Supreme Leader Is the Real Crisis
Three weeks into the war, the question is no longer whether a ceasefire holds. It is whether anyone in Tehran can sign one.
12% Iranian regime fall by April 30Future Times · 22 Mar 2026 · 4 min read
Geopolitics
Trump Gives Iran 48 Hours to Open Hormuz. Markets Price 92.5% Chance He Means It.
Trump threatened to destroy Iranian power plants within 48 hours — prediction markets give diplomacy a 7.5% chance.
7.5% Ceasefire by March 31 (as of 2026-03-22 00:54)Future Times · 22 Mar 2026 · 2 min read
Geopolitics
Markets Price a Lebanon Ground War at 74% — With Days to Spare
What the markets are pricing
24% Israel-Lebanon normalisation by 2027Future Times · 19 Mar 2026 · 5 min read