Geopolitics & Conflict
Geopolitics
Trump Wants Hormuz as US Territory. Markets Say No.
The Strait of Hormuz cannot be seized by tweet, and traders are betting it won't be seized at all.
1% Hormuz open by end of AugustFuture Times · 16 Aug 2026 · 3 min read
Geopolitics
Iran's Hormuz Blockade Is Hardening Into Permanence
The ceasefire was supposed to reopen the strait. Instead, Iran is building a toll booth.
5% Hormuz open by end of MayFuture Times · 17 May 2026 · 3 min read
Geopolitics
Trump and Xi Are Meeting. Markets Already Know How It Ends.
The Beijing summit is confirmed, but a 53-point gap between visit probability and deal odds tells the real story.
95% Trump visits China May 13Future Times · 12 May 2026 · 3 min read
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