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Geopolitics coverage powered by prediction markets — wars, elections, diplomacy, and global risk.
Israel's election left both camps short of 61 seats, and Netanyahu's side is ahead on the count. Yet the chance that Gadi Eisenkot becomes the next prime minister has doubled in a week, which tells you where the real contest lies.
The Strait of Hormuz cannot be seized by tweet, and traders are betting it won't be seized at all.
The ceasefire was supposed to reopen the strait. Instead, Iran is building a toll booth.
The Beijing summit is confirmed, but a 53-point gap between visit probability and deal odds tells the real story.
A US cruise ship passenger has tested positive for hantavirus, but prediction markets see containment, not contagion.
The same political resilience that makes a deal possible keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed.
US and Iran exchanged fire in Hormuz on the day the peace deal deadline expired, and markets say recovery will lag any agreement.
Traders see a diplomatic resolution as probable within weeks, but the Beijing meeting alone won't deliver it.
The first direct Iranian strike on a US Gulf ally reshapes the region's alliances and tests a ceasefire that exists only on paper.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s confirmation removes the power-vacuum scenario that markets feared most.
Prediction markets price just 4.5% odds of the Strait of Hormuz reopening by May 15, revealing a hard negotiation deadline traders believe is already lost.
Abu Dhabi declared Iran untouchable 48 hours after Future Times flagged it as a potential mediator. The meeting odds haven't moved.
The visit is confirmed. The trade breakthrough is not. A 37-point gap between summit odds and deal odds tells the real story.
The White House killed Tehran's best diplomatic opening last week. Now a newly independent Gulf state could revive it.
The US has already struck Iran's oil hub twice. Markets price a 10 per cent chance that sustained bombardment succeeds where Iraq's Tanker War failed.
The UAE will leave OPEC on May 1, fracturing the oil cartel as Hormuz tensions threaten global crude flows and US-Iran diplomacy hangs in the balance.
The PLA's modernisation target gives Xi a capability he does not yet have. Prediction markets are pricing today's risk, not tomorrow's.
Prediction markets price a 48% chance of a US-Iran deal by June, contradicting the frozen-conflict narrative and signalling a compressed sixty-day decision window.
On day 58 of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, Netanyahu backs the Hormuz blockade and signals diplomacy is failing — while prediction markets remain silent.
Hezbollah's compliance deadline arrives as markets, strikes and stalled disarmament talks signal collapse.
News, priced in. Journalism built on what prediction markets expect to happen next.
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