Geopolitics20h ago
Traders now expect a US-Iran ceasefire within weeks. They do not expect the blockade or Hormuz to follow.
Trump calls the war "effectively over" and says new strikes are "highly unlikely". The distance between a pause in fighting and a working Gulf is where the risk sits.
62%
US-Iran ceasefire begins by 22 November
Live odds on Polymarket
Future Times10 Nov 20265 min read
