Markets price 67% chance of Fed rate cut as inflation cools

Prediction markets have sharply revised the probability of a June rate cut upward after CPI data came in below analyst forecasts.

67% June cutFuture Times · 18 Mar 2026 · 4 min read

Ukraine ceasefire odds tick to 33% as back-channel talks intensify

33% likely

World

EU AI Act enforcement now 78% likely to trigger first major fine by year-end

78% likely

Technology

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Markets

Bitcoin's path to $100k: market assigns 54% probability as ETF inflows accelerate

Institutional demand through spot ETF products has absorbed over $4bn in the past 30 days.

54% likelyFuture Times · 17 Mar 2026 · 3 min readPro

Economics

Recession probability for 2026 holds at 41% despite strong jobs report

Prediction markets remain cautious as leading indicators send mixed signals.

41% likelyFuture Times · 18 Mar 2026 · 3 min read

Analysis

Economics

India overtaking China in GDP growth now 61% likely within five years

Demographic tailwinds and manufacturing reshoring are driving a sharp revision in long-term growth forecasts.

61% likelyFuture Times · 17 Mar 2026 · 5 min readPro

Politics

UK snap election probability falls to 12% as Labour stabilises in polls

Improved economic sentiment reduces political pressure for early dissolution.

12% likelyFuture Times · 16 Mar 2026 · 3 min read

Technology

OpenAI IPO in 2026 now rated 48% probable as valuation talks resume

Board restructuring and new investor interest have reignited speculation around a public offering.

48% likelyFuture Times · 16 Mar 2026 · 4 min readPro

Latest

Markets

Brent crude below $60/bbl by June: prediction markets assign 22%

22% likelyFuture Times · 16 Mar 2026 · 3 min readPro

Economics

Germany exits recession with 72% probability by Q3, say markets

72% likelyFuture Times · 18 Mar 2026 · 2 min read

World

Iran nuclear deal revival odds slip to 18% as talks stall in Vienna

18% likelyFuture Times · 17 Mar 2026 · 2 min read

Technology

Apple Vision mass-market launch assigned only 29% chance in 2026

29% likelyFuture Times · 16 Mar 2026 · 2 min read

Markets price 67% chance of Fed rate cut as inflation cools

Ukraine ceasefire odds tick to 33% as back-channel talks intensify

EU AI Act enforcement now 78% likely to trigger first major fine by year-end

Bitcoin's path to $100k: market assigns 54% probability as ETF inflows accelerate

Recession probability for 2026 holds at 41% despite strong jobs report

India overtaking China in GDP growth now 61% likely within five years

UK snap election probability falls to 12% as Labour stabilises in polls

OpenAI IPO in 2026 now rated 48% probable as valuation talks resume

Brent crude below $60/bbl by June: prediction markets assign 22%

Germany exits recession with 72% probability by Q3, say markets

Iran nuclear deal revival odds slip to 18% as talks stall in Vienna

Apple Vision mass-market launch assigned only 29% chance in 2026

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