Fed rate cut by June 202662%+0%
Trump tariffs extended 202671%+0%
Ukraine ceasefire 202634%+0%
OpenAI valuation above $300B58%+0%
Major US company bankruptcy 202629%+0%
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Friday, 6 November 2026

Netanyahu's bloc won more seats than Eisenkot's. Traders now think Eisenkot is the one who ends up as prime minister.
Geopolitics

Netanyahu's bloc won more seats than Eisenkot's. Traders now think Eisenkot is the one who ends up as prime minister.

Israel's election left both camps short of 61 seats, and Netanyahu's side is ahead on the count. Yet the chance that Gadi Eisenkot becomes the next prime minister has doubled in a week, which tells you where the real contest lies.

66% Prime Minister of Israel after the next election: Gadi EizenkotFuture Times · 6 Nov 2026 · 5 min read
Hegseth could be impeached by a lame-duck House before the Democrats even take their seats
Policy

Hegseth could be impeached by a lame-duck House before the Democrats even take their seats

A Republican is forcing a vote next week, and traders now give impeachment by the end of the year a one-in-three chance. The real contest is over timing, and over how many defeated Republicans bother to turn up.

34% Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026Future Times · 6 Nov 2026 · 5 min read
Oil is pricing in an end to the Iran war. The ships will take far longer to return.
Analysis

Oil is pricing in an end to the Iran war. The ships will take far longer to return.

Brent has shed its war premium on hopes that the midterm defeat forces a deal. But the political and physical halves of peace run on different clocks, and traders expect months between them.

41% US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31Future Times · 6 Nov 2026 · 5 min read
Deep DivesPro

Workslop Is Dragging Enterprise AI Into a Productivity Trap

AI-generated "workslop" — output that looks competent but fails on inspection — is now documented as a structural drag on enterprise productivity. The problem is not that models are bad; it is that mandated adoption outran the human infrastructure needed to review their outputs.

Pro

AI & the Future of Work

AI is disrupting white-collar cognitive work before blue-collar trades, inverting the pattern of every prior automation wave. A three-layer framework explains why economists disagree and who faces displacement first.

Pro

Future of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets now process more weekly volume than most commodity exchanges. The question is whether Congress or the Supreme Court decides what they actually are.

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Wall Street's AI rout threatens Anthropic's November IPO. The bigger casualty is its valuation.
Tech

Wall Street's AI rout threatens Anthropic's November IPO. The bigger casualty is its valuation.

Investors doubt the roadshow can start next week, and valuation talk has slid from $2tn to about $1.2tn in five weeks. Prediction markets read a delay rather than a cancellation, and see no sign that the wider economy is cracking.

60% Anthropic IPO by __: November 30, 2026Future Times · 6 Nov 2026 · 6 min read
The Fed is about to raise rates into an energy shock. Markets think it's the last hike for a while.
Markets

The Fed is about to raise rates into an energy shock. Markets think it's the last hike for a while.

A strong October jobs report has all but settled the case for a second rate rise. The bigger question is whether December ends the cycle, and the Fed won't say.

78% Fed Decision in December: 25 bps increaseFuture Times · 6 Nov 2026 · 5 min read
Markets

Warsh Finally Got the Data He Needed. He Won't Use It.

Inflation is cooling, the case for cuts is building, and the Fed chair appointed to deliver them is choosing to hold.

73% Fed holds in SeptemberFuture Times · 16 Aug 2026 · 3 min read
Trump Wants Hormuz as US Territory. Markets Say No.
Geopolitics

Trump Wants Hormuz as US Territory. Markets Say No.

The Strait of Hormuz cannot be seized by tweet, and traders are betting it won't be seized at all.

1% Hormuz open by end of AugustFuture Times · 16 Aug 2026 · 3 min read

Deep Dives

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Unlock with Pro →
Workslop Is Dragging Enterprise AI Into a Productivity Trap
Analysis

Workslop Is Dragging Enterprise AI Into a Productivity Trap

AI-generated "workslop" — output that looks competent but fails on inspection — is now documented as a structural drag on enterprise productivity. The problem is not that models are bad; it is that mandated adoption outran the human infrastructure needed to review their outputs.

47% Claude 5 released by June 2026Future Times · 15 Apr 2026 · 8 min readPro
Full analysis for Pro subscribersGo Pro
AI & the Future of Work
Analysis

AI & the Future of Work

AI is disrupting white-collar cognitive work before blue-collar trades, inverting the pattern of every prior automation wave. A three-layer framework explains why economists disagree and who faces displacement first.

37% JD Vance wins 2028 Republican nomination (proxy: pro-AI deployment policy)Future Times · 3 Apr 2026 · 7 min readPro
Full analysis for Pro subscribersGo Pro
Future of Prediction Markets
Analysis

Future of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets now process more weekly volume than most commodity exchanges. The question is whether Congress or the Supreme Court decides what they actually are.

54% Clarity Act signed into law in 2026Future Times · 30 Mar 2026 · 8 min readPro
Full analysis for Pro subscribersGo Pro

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