Hegseth could be impeached by a lame-duck House before the Democrats even take their seats

A Republican is forcing a vote next week, and traders now give impeachment by the end of the year a one-in-three chance. The real contest is over timing, and over how many defeated Republicans bother to turn up.

The most dangerous threat to Pete Hegseth's job may not come from the Democrats who swept the midterms. It comes from a Republican who has nothing left to lose.

Thomas Massie, the Kentucky congressman who lost his primary in May to a challenger backed by President Donald Trump, says he will force a House vote on eight articles of impeachment against the defence secretary when Congress returns in the week of 9 November. "He is abusing the power of his office to ignore congressional war powers resolutions," Massie said. The House that votes will be the outgoing, Republican-controlled one, not the Democratic majority that voters elected on 3 November.

Traders have taken notice. On Polymarket they put the chance that Hegseth is impeached by 31 December at 34.4% (as of 6 November), up 21 points in a week. For a cabinet secretary of a sitting president's own party, in a House his party still controls, that is a remarkable number. It is also a measure of how badly the Iran war has damaged Republicans: "The reason we lost is the war," Vice-President JD Vance wrote the morning after the results.

A vote the Democrats do not need to win

The Democrats' victory was sweeping. NBC News projects they will hold 54 Senate seats to the Republicans' 44, with Alaska and Mississippi still too close to call, and 259 House seats to 176. But the new Congress is not sworn in until January. Until then, Speaker Mike Johnson's narrow majority stays in charge.

Massie first filed his articles in September, the first three alleging that Hegseth violated the 1973 War Powers Resolution over Iran. The vote stalled when Johnson sent members home early to campaign. Massie has said there is "one contingency" in which he will not bring them back: "Hegseth resigns."

His tool is a privileged resolution, which forces a vote within two legislative days. Party leaders can try to kill it first with a motion to table it or send it to committee, which is where most such resolutions die. This one might not. Democrats hold 214 seats in the current House and need 218, so a handful of Republican votes would do. So might a handful of empty seats: one Republican lawmaker told Fox News that many members who lost their re-election races may simply not come back for the final two months of the year.

Traders see the vote as nearly as likely as an exit

The markets on Hegseth's future, read together, show where traders think the risk lies. The chance that he is out as defence secretary by 31 December is 41.5%, barely above the 34.4% chance of impeachment by the same date. A House vote is priced as almost as likely as a departure, a striking verdict on a lame-duck chamber.

The longer view adds only modestly to the risk. Traders put the chance of impeachment by 31 March 2027 at 52.5%. A new Democratic House would need no Republican votes at all, yet traders expect it to add only about 18 points in its first three months. One explanation is that, by then, there may be no one left to impeach: an exit before January would remove the target, and Massie has promised not to proceed if Hegseth goes.

For contrast, traders give only a 2.1% chance that Trump himself is impeached by the end of 2026. That number reflects the calendar more than the politics: the price for an impeachment by the end of 2027, once Democrats control the House, is 56.5%.

A White House sending two messages

The odds of Hegseth leaving by 30 November have fallen 9 points in a day, to 22.5%, as the White House has closed ranks in public. Asked on 4 November whether he was considering replacing Hegseth, Trump said: "No, I think he's doing a very good job." A day later he said he had "every intention" of keeping him. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the president "has full confidence in Secretary Hegseth".

Privately, the signals are mixed. Trump has been asking advisers whether Hegseth should stay, CBS News reported, citing multiple sources; one source said Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was being floated as a replacement who could be confirmed during the lame-duck session. A White House official told Fox News: "I believe you'll ultimately see [Trump] hold Pete Hegseth accountable and that will play out in the lame duck." The Pentagon's spokesman, Sean Parnell, has said Hegseth "will not back down".

The case that it changes nothing

The sceptics have history on their side. Removal from office requires a two-thirds vote of the Senate, or 67 senators. Even in the new Congress Democrats will have at most 56 seats, so they would need at least 11 Republicans. The only two cabinet secretaries ever impeached by the House, William Belknap in 1876 and Alejandro Mayorkas in 2024, were both acquitted.

But impeachment does not need to end in conviction to work. Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican who called his vote to confirm Hegseth the "biggest regret of my career", says the defence secretary faces "a reckoning" in the lame-duck session, and that Trump will struggle to secure Pentagon funding while he stays. Democrats have threatened to block $70bn of emergency defence funding and the annual defence spending bill while the Iran war continues.

What it means for markets, business and politics

• Politics and policy: The lame-duck vote is the first test of how many Republicans will break with Trump after the midterm rout. Even a failed attempt to table Massie's resolution would show the White House's grip on the House weakening before Democrats take over.
• Defence budget: Hegseth's fate is now tied to the Pentagon's money. With $70bn of emergency funding and the annual defence bill in play, his departure could become the price of passing both.
• Defence contractors: The risk for defence companies is delay rather than cuts. A stand-off over Hegseth that holds up emergency funding and the annual bill would slow new contracts and payments, even if the eventual sums are unchanged.
• Geopolitics: The Iran war is the cause of Hegseth's troubles, and Vance has blamed it for the election defeat. A new defence secretary could signal a change of course in the war, and anyone confirmed by a Democratic Senate would face pressure to provide one.
• Oversight: Whatever happens in December, scrutiny is coming. Adam Smith, the Democrat expected to chair the House Armed Services Committee, has promised to prioritise oversight of the Pentagon.

What to watch

Massie's resolution and any motion to table it, in the week of 9 November. Attendance among defeated Republicans. Any move by Trump before 30 November. And the new Congress in January, when impeachment will no longer need a single Republican vote.

A resignation would end the fight. A tabled resolution would only postpone it.