Eisenkot has the mandate to replace Netanyahu. The 67 votes behind him may not add up to a government.
Gadi Eisenkot has a mandate, a 28-day clock and a majority of recommendations. But the votes that make 67 come from parties his own allies will not rely on, and the other routes to 61 run through the ultra-Orthodox.
Future Times5 min read
The odds
Polymarket · live, 03:50 GMTEisenkot becomes Israel's next prime minister
up 14 points over 7d66% when this was published
Now · 61%
Think the market's wrong? Add your forecast and see who's closer.
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election: Benjamin Netanyahu24%down 6 points
- Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 202641%up 11 points
- Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 202766%up 13 points
Benjamin Netanyahu's best-case outcome from here is a second chance. President Isaac Herzog told both men on Saturday that he is tasking Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, with forming Israel's next government, and Eisenkot receives the mandate at a ceremony at the President's Residence at 5pm on 8 November. He has 28 days.
The decision followed the numbers. Eisenkot collected 67 recommendations from the 120 members of the Knesset; Netanyahu collected 46; the seven members of United Torah Judaism backed neither. Netanyahu answered with a video address calling for a "national unity government". Yashar called it "hysterical". Eisenkot said on X that "now is the time for the formation of a national emergency government".
A mandate is not a government, though. Recommendations are not binding, and the 67 is not a coalition anyone has agreed to.
Why 67 is not 61
Netanyahu's bloc won 53 seats on 27 October. The opposition parties that now back Eisenkot won 48. The remaining 19 belong to two Arab-led parties, the Joint List with 11 and Ra'am with 8, which recommended Eisenkot to Herzog. That is how the opposition reaches 67.
Those 19 seats are the problem. Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu recommended Eisenkot, but its representative told Herzog the party cannot sit in a government that depends on parties that do not recognise Hamas as a terrorist organisation. Hawkish figures elsewhere in Eisenkot's bloc have said much the same. Only Yair Golan of the Democrats has openly backed working with the Arab parties. Eisenkot's own conditions for joining a government include calling Hamas a terrorist group and recognising Israel as a Jewish state, which could rule some of them out of the cabinet while still leaving them able to vote for it.
Without the Arab parties, Eisenkot's 48 seats are 13 short. The only other arithmetic on offer is the ultra-Orthodox: the 48, plus United Torah Judaism's 7 and Shas's 6, makes exactly 61. Shas has called reports that it would tolerate such a government "total fake news" and insists it belongs to the right-wing bloc. The bloc also campaigned against the Haredi parties, and Eisenkot, Golan and Bennett's party all demand compulsory military service that the ultra-Orthodox resist. Liberman has signalled he can accept "painful compromises" on enlistment, which sets him apart from his partners.
The clock
Under Israeli law Eisenkot has 28 days from the handover, and Herzog can add up to 14. By that count the first deadline falls around 6 December and the outer limit around 20 December. If he fails, Herzog can give another member of the Knesset a further 28 days with no extension, and Netanyahu is the obvious candidate. If that fails, 61 members can nominate a third person, who gets 14 days. If no government wins a confidence vote, the Knesset dissolves and an election follows within 90 days.
There is also a deadline that has nothing to do with the mandate. Contested judicial laws passed by the outgoing coalition take effect on 1 January 2027 unless repealed. Eisenkot's allies plan to win the first mandate, take control of the Knesset committee that sets the chamber's procedures, replace Speaker Amir Ohana and repeal the laws. A senior official in the bloc has said that without a united recommendation they will take effect and "we won't be able to repeal them".
What traders expect
Markets agree with Herzog on who is ahead and are less sure about what comes after. Traders put Eisenkot's chance of being Israel's next prime minister at 66% as of 8 November, up 31 points in a week, against 19.5% for Netanyahu, down 18.5 points.
The Netanyahu figure is not trivial. It is consistent with a path in which Eisenkot's attempt collapses and the mandate passes to Netanyahu, or an election reshuffles the deck. Liberman is priced at 6% and Bennett at 2.8%.
The timing markets are more revealing. Traders give a new government 15% by 30 November and 42% by 31 December, but 71.5% by 28 February. The legal maximum for Eisenkot's first attempt ends around 20 December, so a year-end price below even odds says traders expect either a drawn-out negotiation or a failed first attempt followed by a second round. The market does not expect a quick deal.
These two are small markets, with the December one on only $55,000 of trading, so they are a guide to the mood rather than a forecast.
The case against the sceptics
The strongest argument for Eisenkot is that nobody on his side has an alternative. Liberman has said he wants to avoid another election, the opposition leaders met in Herzliya on 3 November and promised to act "immediately" to form a government, and a fresh vote would hand Netanyahu another chance to rebuild. A government that wins a confidence vote with Arab-party votes but no Arab-party ministers would fit every stated red line. For that to fail, a hawkish member of his own bloc would have to refuse even that.
What it means for markets, business and politics
Markets The price that has moved is the leadership one, not the timing one. Israeli assets face a month or more of coalition haggling rather than a clean change of government, and the 1 January judicial deadline gives December a hard edge.
Politics Netanyahu is not out of the picture. His route back runs through an Eisenkot failure, which gives him an incentive to keep the ultra-Orthodox parties from joining anything Liberman is part of.
Policy A government led by Eisenkot would try to repeal the judicial changes and revisit conscription for the ultra-Orthodox. Those are the two issues most likely to split his own coalition.
Geopolitics Eisenkot has said that before a new government is sworn in he would support military operations only against direct and immediate threats that cannot wait, a signal about restraint during the handover.
What to watch
The Knesset is sworn in on 10 November. Then watch whether Liberman and the ultra-Orthodox parties are in the same room, whether the Arab parties vote for a government they are not part of, and whether Eisenkot asks Herzog for the extension before 6 December.
Eisenkot has the keys. He still has to find a door that opens.