Trump expects to meet Putin and Xi in China. Traders do not expect a Ukraine settlement from it.

"One of the meetings, I think, will be with President Putin and President Xi, and that'll be interesting." Donald Trump said that to reporters on Sunday, before flying back to Washington from Florida. It is the clearest sign yet that the first three-way meeting of the world's most powerful leaders could happen in nine days' time, on the edges of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen on 18-19 November.

Nothing is signed. The White House has not published a schedule, and Beijing's foreign ministry said in October that it had no information about such a meeting. But the market view is unusually firm: a Trump-Putin meeting is close to a certainty, China is where it happens, and almost nothing that Kyiv wants comes out of it.

What is confirmed, and what is not

The idea is not new. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on 1 September that Putin, Trump and Xi could hold a three-way meeting at the Shenzhen summit. On 19 October Trump said he was willing to sit down with both men in China, and the Kremlin said on 21 October that preparations were under way for a trilateral meeting, a first for the three leaders.

What remains unconfirmed is the format. Trump said "one of the meetings", which does not promise a formal three-way session. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said no substantive proposals on content or agenda had been put forward.

The agenda, as Trump describes it, is denuclearisation and the war in Iran: "We're trying to end the war in Iran," he said on Sunday. Ukraine is a side issue by his account. In October he said Russia "has been fine with Ukraine". Neither Trump's remarks nor the Kremlin's mention trade or Taiwan as agenda items.

A meeting traders already treat as done

Traders put the chance that Trump and Putin meet by 31 December at 89% (as of 9 November), and by 30 November at 87.5%. That 1.5-point gap is the key reading: almost all the probability sits in the next three weeks, which means the Shenzhen summit and nothing later. If the November meeting fell through, the market does not see a December rescue.

Asked where the two men would next meet, traders say China at 88.5%, up 5 points in a week.

The three-way idea is priced just as high. The chance of Trump, Putin and Xi being seen together before 2027 is 89.5%, on only $87,000 of trading, so the number deserves less weight than the rest. It sits fractionally above the Trump-Putin price, which a strict three-way meeting could not exceed. The likeliest explanation is that traders count a shared appearance, such as a summit photograph, even without a formal session.

What the meeting will not deliver

The same traders are sceptical about everything Ukraine wants. A meeting of Trump, Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky together before 2027 stands at 3.5%, down 4 points in a week. Putin has repeatedly ruled out meeting Zelensky until a final peace deal is ready, and Ukraine's foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, has warned that a trilateral meeting without Kyiv would "encourage Putin to continue this war".

Trump is more optimistic than the market. In an interview broadcast on Sunday he said "I believe we're very close to making a deal" and that Ukraine would end up "a little bit different shape". Asked whom he trusts more, Putin or Zelensky, he said: "Well, I'd rather not say, but I get along with both." Critics read that as a tilt towards Moscow, and Kyiv will read it the same way.

Traders see little sign of the deal. They put a ceasefire by 31 December at 9.5% and by 31 March 2027 at 21.5%. Ukraine recognising Russian sovereignty over its territory this year is 2.4%. A "different shape" for Ukraine that stops short of formal recognition is therefore not priced as imminent either.

That gap, a meeting at 89% against a ceasefire at under 10%, is the story. Traders expect talking, not settling. The next test comes before Shenzhen: US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are to host Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November, covering post-war security, de-escalation and humanitarian measures. Russia and Ukraine remain far apart on terms, and Trump has lately increased pressure on Kyiv to accept some form of agreement.

The case for being wrong

The market could be too sceptical. A summit with Xi present gives Putin a room in which to press Trump without Zelensky in it. If Trump has already decided what "a little bit different shape" means, an announcement of a framework in Shenzhen is possible, even if a ceasefire takes longer to follow.

The market could also be too confident about the meeting itself. Trump's own phrase was "I think", Beijing has said nothing, and a summit this large can slip. Prices of 87-89% leave a one-in-eight chance that the meeting does not take place by the end of November.

• Politics and policy: Europe is the clearest loser. A Trump-Putin-Xi session would show decisions that touch Ukraine's future being discussed without Europe in the room. Kyiv will push for any outcome to be conditional on its consent.
• Business: Companies with Russian exposure should expect sanctions to stay in place for now. Nothing in Trump's stated agenda touches trade or tariffs.

Trump has promised a meeting that traders believe in. What he has not promised, and what they do not expect, is a peace.