Trump Threatens NATO Exit as Iran Ceasefire Demands Collide
The US president openly considers withdrawing from the alliance while setting conditions Tehran says it will never accept.
President Donald Trump told The Telegraph on Tuesday that he is "absolutely" considering pulling the United States out of NATO, describing the 75-year-old alliance as a "paper tiger" after European members refused to back the US-led military campaign in Iran. In a separate Reuters interview, he said the US would leave Iran "pretty quickly" once operations conclude, but set a hard precondition: the Strait of Hormuz must reopen first.
The twin statements mark the sharpest escalation in transatlantic relations since the war began. Prediction markets currently price an 11.5% chance that the US formally withdraws from NATO before 2027 on Polymarket, a figure that has barely moved despite today’s rhetoric. Traders appear to be betting on the institutional guardrails: the 2023 NATO Exit Law requires either a two-thirds Senate vote or an act of Congress to formalise withdrawal, a bar Trump has shown no sign of clearing. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reinforced the pressure, warning that Washington would “reconsider relations” with the alliance if burden-sharing did not improve.
On Iran, the standoff is equally intractable. Trump claimed Iranian President Pezeshkian had requested a ceasefire. Tehran denied it within hours. The IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz “fully” under Iranian control, directly contradicting Trump’s precondition for peace. China and Pakistan have reportedly offered a framework linking a ceasefire to the strait’s reopening, though neither Washington nor Tehran has endorsed it.
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Trump is expected to address the nation tonight. Markets are watching Congress, not the podium.