Markets Lock In the April War Call on Iran

US entry odds jump 26 points to 82% after two warplanes downed and a Strait of Hormuz ultimatum, with ceasefire markets pricing the earliest off-ramp at mid-summer.

The market has made its April call on Iran.

Prediction markets now price an 82% probability that US forces will enter Iran by April 30, up from 56% at the start of the week. The 26-point jump followed two US warplanes shot down over Iranian territory on April 3 and 4, with one crew member still missing, and President Trump’s ultimatum on the Strait of Hormuz issued Friday afternoon.

The escalation comes in the sixth week of the US-Israeli air campaign. Ceasefire diplomacy has collapsed in parallel: Iran denied requesting talks on April 1, regional mediators abandoned efforts two days later, and Trump told reporters the US would “finish the job.” With strikes intensifying and Tehran pledging retaliation, the window for a negotiated off-ramp before month’s end has all but closed.

Markets quantify that closure precisely. Ceasefire odds run at just 6% by April 15 on Polymarket, rising to 18% by April 30 and 44% by June 30. The gradient tells you what the headline number alone does not: traders expect this war to last well into summer, with the earliest realistic de-escalation priced around mid-year. A separate contract on Iranian regime collapse sits at 4% by April 30, reinforcing the consensus view of a sustained, grinding campaign rather than a swift decapitation.

The Hormuz deadline adds a new dimension. A blockade or strike on the strait would drag global energy markets directly into the conflict, raising the stakes for every actor involved. Oil futures ticked higher on Friday as the threat registered.

The number to watch now is not 82%. That bet is largely settled. It is the ceasefire gradient: any movement in the April 30 or June 30 contracts will signal whether the market’s summer timeline is holding or compressing. Until those numbers shift, traders are pricing a long war.