Iran Denies Trump's Claim of 'Productive' War Talks

Tehran dismissed as "fake news" President Trump's assertion that the US has held direct talks to end the four-week-old conflict, deepening uncertainty over whether diplomacy can avert further escalation.

President Trump on Monday claimed the United States had conducted "very good and productive conversations" with a senior Iranian official, announcing a five-day pause on strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure to allow for negotiations. "We are very intent on making a deal," he told CNBC, adding there were "major points of agreement" between the two sides.

Hours later, Iranian officials flatly denied any contact had taken place. Tehran's foreign ministry dismissed the claims as fabricated, according to Al Jazeera, insisting Iran sees no basis for talks while US and Israeli strikes continue across the country. The New York Post reported the two sides are not speaking directly, with any communication running through intermediaries at best.

The contradiction matters because it strips away the diplomatic veneer that briefly calmed markets. Oil prices fell nearly 11 per cent and the Dow rallied 600 points on Trump's initial remarks, according to CNBC — a £1.7 trillion swing driven by a claim Iran now says never happened.

Prediction markets remain sceptical. On Polymarket, the probability of US-Iran military escalation stands at 18.5 per cent, meaningfully above ceasefire odds of just 15.5 per cent. That inversion — escalation priced as more likely than peace — reflects a market consensus that the conflict's trajectory remains upward even as Washington signals willingness to talk.

The five-day pause on energy strikes expires on Friday. Trump had previously issued an ultimatum over the Strait of Hormuz; Bloomberg reports allies warned the war was "becoming a disaster" before talks began. If Iran continues to deny negotiations are occurring, the president faces a narrowing set of options: escalate further, extend the pause unilaterally, or acknowledge the diplomatic opening may not exist.

Israel, meanwhile, launched fresh strikes on Tehran on Monday evening, according to the Guardian — a reminder that even a US pause does not mean the war has stopped.