Mélenchon vowed to 'change everything' as France marched again. The 2027 race is still Le Pen's to lose
A fourth weekend of cost-of-living protests and a far-left manifesto launch have not changed the arithmetic. Traders make Marine Le Pen the clear favourite, and give Jean-Luc Mélenchon a coin flip to reach the run-off but far worse odds of winning it.
Future Times5 min read
The odds
Polymarket · live, 03:50 GMTMarine Le Pen wins the next French presidency
up 6 points over 7d45% when this was published
Now · 46%
Think the market's wrong? Add your forecast and see who's closer.
- 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot: Jean-Luc Mélenchon96%up 3 points
- Next French Presidential Election: Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%up 1 point
Police fired tear gas and stun grenades at protesters lingering on Paris's Place de la Nation on the evening of Saturday 7 November, closing a fourth straight weekend of marches against the cost of living. Student unions said about 250,000 people took part nationwide; the Interior Ministry put the figure closer to 146,000. In the Paris suburb of Le Bourget, Jean-Luc Mélenchon told some 20,000 supporters: "We must change everything."
Both are betting that France's anger will remake its politics. Traders are not convinced: they still treat the April 2027 presidential election as Marine Le Pen's to lose, with Mélenchon a near-certain candidate but a distant contender.
A squeeze the budget makes tighter
Consumer prices rose 3.4% in the year to October, up from 3.1% in September, according to INSEE's provisional estimate, with energy up 24.1%. Output shrank 0.1% in the third quarter. The minimum wage, a central union grievance, has had no discretionary rise since 2012.
With debt at a post-war record of 119% of output, the government is squeezing harder. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's 2027 budget seeks a €54bn effort to cut the deficit from 5.4% to 5% of output, freezing public-sector pay and all but the lowest pensions while raising VAT and income-tax receipts. On 4 November the National Assembly rejected its revenue section by 458 votes to none. Lecornu meets unions and employers on 9 November to discuss wages and purchasing power.
The national strike on 5 November drew 575,000 people by the ministry's count and nearly 1.6 million by the CGT union's. On Saturday, Yellow Vest activists defied a ban to gather at Place de la Concorde. "We are calling for mass disobedience," said Benjamin Ball, of the movement's coordinating committee, who was arrested outside the National Assembly that afternoon.
Mélenchon's offer: retirement at 60, NATO out
The fifth edition of France Unbowed's programme speaks directly to the marchers. It would lift the net monthly minimum wage from about €1,480 to €1,700, cap prices on essential foods and restore retirement at 60 for those with 40 years of contributions, undoing the rise to 64. It would abolish the flat tax on capital income, scrap the EPR2 nuclear reactor programme and begin a withdrawal from NATO's integrated command. No overall costing was set out at the launch. He spoke of "the death throes of the Macron era".
The polls give him momentum. An Ifop survey for LCI of 1,501 registered voters, conducted on 27-29 October, put him on 17.5-18%, up about three points and second in every scenario tested. Le Pen led on 35-37%.
Traders see a run-off, not a revolution
Traders agree that Mélenchon will run, putting his chance of appearing on the ballot at 96% (as of 7 November). They are far less sure he gets further: his chance of reaching the run-off stands at 48.5%, on modest trading, well below what the Ifop numbers would suggest.
His chance of winning the presidency is 13.5%, up 2 points in a week. That is little more than a quarter of his chance of reaching the second round, implying traders expect him to lose most run-offs he could contest.
Le Pen's chance of winning rose 4 points to 45% over a week that brought the budget defeat and fresh unrest. Jordan Bardella, her choice for prime minister, adds 2.2%. With her chance of appearing on the ballot at 89.5%, the market sees her as roughly a coin flip to win if she runs.
The other notable price is on the right. David Lisnard, the mayor of Cannes, polls only 7-9% for Ifop but carries a 15% chance of winning, ahead of Mélenchon; Édouard Philippe has slipped 4 points in a week to 9.5%. The gap suggests traders see Le Pen's most dangerous opponent on the centre-right, not on the left that is leading the protests.
What would prove the market wrong
Le Pen's eligibility is the main hinge. On 7 July the Paris appeals court upheld her conviction for embezzling European Parliament funds but cut her ban from office to 45 months, 30 of them suspended, leaving her free to run. "Tonight, I am a candidate in the presidential election," she told TF1 that evening. Her appeal to the Cour de cassation keeps the case open: the court hears constitutional challenges on 16 December, and a ruling on the substance could come in late March or early April, weeks before the 18 April first round.
The strongest case for Mélenchon is that the polls already put him in the run-off, and a winter of strikes and a failed budget could turn protest into votes. To prove the market wrong he would also need to overturn polling that shows him losing in the second round.
What it means for markets, business and politics
Markets The 10-year OAT yielded 4.77% on 6 November, about 1.5 percentage points over the German Bund. With Le Pen favoured and the budget stalled, that premium has little reason to shrink before April; a sustained rise in Mélenchon's chances would likely add to it, since his spending pledges come without a published costing.
Stocks and sectors French banks came under particular pressure on 19 October, when unrest and budget doubts pushed the gap over Bunds to its widest since the euro crisis, and are the first exposure to any widening. Food retailers face the clearest risk from price caps, and the nuclear supply chain from a pledge to scrap the EPR2 reactor programme.
Politics and policy Fitch cut France's outlook to negative on 30 October, citing political fragmentation. A budget imposed without a vote, or by ordinance, would keep that pressure on and hand both Le Pen and Mélenchon a campaign theme.
Business The 9 November wage talks are the government's chance to defuse the protests. Any minimum-wage rise lifts labour costs for retailers, hotels and restaurants just as growth has turned negative.
What to watch
The student and teacher strike on 10 November; final October inflation figures on 13 November; the Cour de cassation hearing on 16 December; and the 17 December budget deadline, after which the government can turn to ordinances. Mélenchon's run-off chance holding above 50%, or Le Pen's ballot chance slipping below 85%, would signal that traders see the race opening up.
Until then, the market's verdict is that France's anger is real, but it is not yet a majority.