Nvidia reports on Tuesday without Jensen Huang. The number that matters will be set in Washington, not Santa Clara
Future Times4 min read
In 30 seconds
Wall Street expects another record quarter. But Nvidia's outlook still assumes no China data-centre sales, and whether that changes runs through Howard Lutnick's embattled department and a Shenzhen summit the same week. Traders now see Nvidia's year-end value as a coin flip around $4tn.
- Consensus sits just above guidance: $108.84bn of revenue and $2.47 a share, against Nvidia's own $108bn plus or minus 2%
- The fourth-quarter outlook, and whether it still excludes China, is the figure to watch; options imply a move of about 10% either way
- Lutnick testifies on 10 December, a week after senators want Huang; traders give him a 44% chance of leaving Commerce by year end
What it means
- StocksNvidia's results are now a test of political risk as much as demand; a beat that leaves China unresolved is unlikely to…
- BusinessSoutheast Asian data-centre operators serving Chinese customers are most exposed if Megaspeed is listed, because it…
- PoliticsThe 3 and 10 December hearings put Huang and Lutnick before the same committee a week apart, linking Nvidia's…
- GeopoliticsA Shenzhen understanding that holds off new curbs would ease pressure on Commerce to act, while a breakdown would make…
What to watch
- 17 NovResults and guidance on 17 November
- 18-19 NovThe Shenzhen summit on 18-19 November
- 3 DecHuang's requested appearance on 3 December and Lutnick's on 10 December
- 10 DecHuang's requested appearance on 3 December and Lutnick's on 10 December
The odds
Polymarket · live, 08:08 GMTNvidia worth less than $4tn at the end of 2026
up 37 points over 7dfrom 14% a week ago
What would move these odds
- A fourth-quarter outlook well above consensus would push Nvidia back above $4tn
- Megaspeed added to the Entity List or new China curbs announced after Shenzhen would raise the odds of a sub-$4tn finish
- A permanent CEO named before year end would cut the leadership discount
Now · 51%
Think the market's wrong? Add your forecast and see who's closer.
- Largest Company end of December 2026: Apple90%up 25 points
- Largest Company end of December 2026: NVIDIA8%down 27 points
- Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 3144%up 23 points
When Nvidia published its last results on 26 August, Jensen Huang supplied the line: "AI has reached its inflection point." On Tuesday 17 November, when the company reports its fiscal third quarter shortly after the US close, the call will be led by Colette Kress, the finance chief now serving as interim chief executive. Huang resigned on 12 November amid an FBI inquiry into his ties to an alleged Chinese spy.
The quarter itself should not be the problem. Nvidia's August outlook called for revenue of $108bn, plus or minus 2%, with gross margins of 74%. The consensus compiled by MarketPulse on 11 November is $108.84bn of revenue and $2.47 of adjusted earnings per share, up about 90% on a year earlier and just above the midpoint of the company's own range.
What investors are really pricing sits outside the income statement. That August outlook assumed no data-centre compute revenue from China at all. Whether that market reopens, or the door closes further, will be decided in Washington and Shenzhen over the next four weeks, much of it in Howard Lutnick's Commerce Department.
A record quarter that cannot settle the argument
Nvidia's market value fell from $5.77tn on 6 October to about $4.07tn on 10 November. Options imply a move of about 10.6% either way on results day, against a ten-year average of 7.8%.
That leaves the company sitting almost exactly on the line traders are now watching. Polymarket traders put the chance that Nvidia ends 2026 worth less than $4tn at 51% (as of 15 November), up from 14% a week earlier, on about $55,000 of trading. Markets on Huang's departure combined with Nvidia's value tell the same story: an even split between finishing above and below $4tn.
The number that can shift that is the fourth-quarter revenue outlook, and specifically whether it still carries a zero for China. A strong quarter delivered with a weak or hedged outlook would confirm what the slide since October has been saying: that the risk is political, not operational.
Why the export decision sits with Lutnick
The policy question has narrowed to one company. Megaspeed, a Singapore-based data-centre company previously led by Alice Huang, whom US officials allege spied for China, bought more than $4.8bn of advanced Nvidia chips over two years. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on 13 November that Treasury, the War Department, State and the US Trade Representative "were in favor of putting Megaspeed on the Entity List for months", adding: "Commerce BIS has the pen." Megaspeed has said it is investigating whether it complied with export controls.
Pressure on the secretary has since become bipartisan. Senator Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat, posted on 13 November that "Lutnick must go"; the Republican senator Jim Banks has said Lutnick "appears to have used loopholes to allow some of these chip sales to occur". Commerce says Lutnick "has fully complied with the terms of his ethics agreement" and has divested his interests in Cantor Fitzgerald. He has agreed to appear before the Senate Banking Committee on 10 December. Its chairman, Tim Scott, has asked Huang to appear on 3 December.
Traders give Lutnick a 44% chance of leaving Commerce by 31 December, up 24 points in a week, after touching 63% during it. The separate market on him leaving the administration before 2027 stands at 43%.
Shenzhen could reset the terms
Within days of Nvidia's report, Donald Trump is due to meet Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen on 18-19 November. China "has consistently opposed the abuse of export control measures", foreign-ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said on 13 November, urging both sides to implement "the important consensus reached by their respective heads of state".
House Speaker Mike Johnson says Congress increasingly favours tighter controls; Liza Tobin, a former National Security Council official, says Trump allowed sales of the older H200 chip but not the newest Blackwell. A summit truce could freeze new curbs; a collapse could release them.
The leadership discount
Nvidia has no permanent chief. Traders give a 24% chance that a new CEO is named by year end. On who it will eventually be, Arm's Rene Haas leads at 25%, ahead of Nvidia's Ian Buck at 23%, with Huang's return as the outcome at 11%.
Investors have already given up on Nvidia as the world's largest company. Traders give Apple a 90% chance of holding that title at the end of December, up 25 points in a week, and Nvidia 7.5%, down from 35%.
Why the market could be wrong
The bull case is simple. China is already out of the forecasts, so any reopening is pure upside, and there is no sign yet that hyperscaler demand depends on who runs Nvidia. A fourth-quarter outlook well above consensus would give buyers a reason to look past the politics, and the coin flip on $4tn could resolve quickly.
What it means for markets, business and politics
Stocks Nvidia's results are now a test of political risk as much as demand; a beat that leaves China unresolved is unlikely to close the gap to its October peak, which keeps Apple's lead as the largest company secure.
NVDAARMAAPLBusiness Southeast Asian data-centre operators serving Chinese customers are most exposed if Megaspeed is listed, because it would set a precedent for the model, not just one firm.
Politics The 3 and 10 December hearings put Huang and Lutnick before the same committee a week apart, linking Nvidia's governance to Lutnick's tenure in public testimony.
Geopolitics A Shenzhen understanding that holds off new curbs would ease pressure on Commerce to act, while a breakdown would make Megaspeed the easiest place for Washington to show resolve.
What to watch
Results and guidance on 17 November; the Shenzhen summit on 18-19 November; Huang's requested appearance on 3 December and Lutnick's on 10 December. A return above $4tn would mean investors have priced the politics; a slide further below it, that they expect Washington to act first.
Nvidia can control its quarter. Its outlook is being written elsewhere.