Anthropic launches its IPO roadshow, seeking up to $64bn at a valuation of as much as $1.4tn
The price range is $70 to $78 a share, well short of the $2tn once floated. Markets see the listing as all but done this month, and the open question is how much of the AI rout the valuation absorbs.
Future Times2 min read
The odds
Polymarket · live, 03:44 GMTAnthropic completes its IPO by 30 November
up 12 points over 7d96% when this was published
Now · 98%
Think the market's wrong? Add your forecast and see who's closer.
- In which month will Anthropic IPO: November 202697%up 10 points
- Anthropic IPO Date: November 1974%up 57 points
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap: $1.25–$1.5T36%up 20 points
Key points
- Anthropic set a $70-$78 range for 825mn shares on Nasdaq under "ANT"
- The top of the range implies up to $64.35bn raised and about $1.4tn fully diluted
- Markets are near-certain of a November listing but split on the closing value
Anthropic on Tuesday set the terms for its stock market debut, offering 825mn Class A shares at $70 to $78 each and applying to list on the Nasdaq under the symbol "ANT". At the top of the range the sale is worth $64.35bn.
Anthropic is selling 801,351,354 of the shares and existing stockholders the other 23,648,646, so about $62.5bn of the top-end total would go to the company. Underwriters led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley get a 30-day option on a further 123,750,000 shares. Separately, AMD, Broadcom, Google, Micron, Microsoft, Nvidia and TSMC have agreed to buy $26bn of a separate class of stock at the IPO price, CNBC reported.
CNBC calculates a fully diluted valuation of up to $1.405tn at $78, against $965bn in the company's May funding round. That is well below the roughly $2tn the company and its advisers had floated. The Wall Street Journal reported on 2 November that investors wanted $1.5tn to $1.6tn after a broad technology sell-off and wanted room for a first-day gain; the range has landed below even that.
What markets now expect
Traders put the chance of an Anthropic listing by 30 November at 96% (as of 10 November), up 14 points in a day, and 94% on a November debut.
The date is the least uncertain part. Traders give 65% to a debut on 19 November, though on only $43,000 of trading. Size and value are less settled. Traders give 40% to a closing market value between $1.25tn and $1.5tn and 28% to less than $1.25tn, while the chance of $1.5tn to $1.75tn fell 18 points in a day to 14%. The chance the raise reaches $75bn to $85bn collapsed to 3%.
Why it matters
- Markets: Traders already leaned towards a value below $1.5tn, so the risk is in the first day. A closing value under $1.25tn would show the AI sell-off still weighs on the largest listing of the cycle.
- Stocks and sectors: The chipmakers and cloud groups buying $26bn of stock are both suppliers and shareholders. Their exposure to Anthropic's reception is now direct.
- Business: Nine-month revenue of $33.24bn, with run-rate revenue near $81bn at the end of October, give the company a strong case. A net loss of $104bn, mostly from fair-value changes on convertible notes and derivatives, will draw scrutiny.
Next: pricing is expected in mid-November, with trading to follow.