Jensen Huang said sorry, Trump and Musk rallied round him, and Wall Street still sold Nvidia
The apology and the political backing have not stopped the selling. Nvidia fell about 5% on a day the Dow rose about 2%, and traders now see Apple, not Nvidia, ending the year as the world's biggest company.
Future Times4 min read
The odds
Polymarket · live, 03:44 GMTNvidia is the world's largest company at year end
down 49 points over 7d26% when this was published
Now · 14%
Think the market's wrong? Add your forecast and see who's closer.
- Largest Company end of December 2026: Apple83%up 47 points
- Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 202616%
Key points
- Huang's apology and Trump's backing did not stop Nvidia falling about 5% on a rising Wall Street
- Traders now give Nvidia a 25.5% chance of being the largest company at year end, from 63.5% a week ago
- Traders put the chance Huang announces his exit by 31 December at 14.5%
"I was unfaithful to my wife. My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did. I am deeply sorry." That was Jensen Huang's message to Nvidia staff, and by Monday afternoon it had bought him powerful friends but not a calmer share price. Nvidia fell about 5% in New York while the Dow rose about 2%.
The message addresses the affair at the centre of the board's investigation, announced on Sunday 8 November. It did not name Alice Huang, the Singapore-based Megaspeed executive whom US officials, according to the New York Times, believe passed information to Beijing, and it did not address her alleged ties to China.
A rescue from Washington and the Valley
The rescue came quickly. President Donald Trump, who said on Sunday he had not discussed the investigation with Huang, called him "an honorable guy" who "probably has an excuse for it". Huang sits on Trump's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.
Shaun Maguire, a partner at Sequoia Capital, called Huang "one of the greatest entrepreneurs of this generation". Elon Musk resurfaced the post with the words "I agree". The investor Bill Ackman called Huang an "incredible human", while adding that he was not suggesting Huang should get a free pass.
Not every Republican joined in. Senator John Cornyn called for a "Congressional oversight investigation". The board's own line is narrower than the politicians': it said Huang "fully supports the review" and that it has no reason to believe national security or Nvidia secrets were compromised.
The market was unmoved
Investors did not follow the politicians. Nvidia fell more than 4% to about $178 in early trading and slid further to about $176 later in the session, around 5.5% below Friday's close of $186.64. The Dow rose about 2%, the S&P 500 2.3% and the Nasdaq 2.6%, so the stock fell against the tide. Rival chipmakers, including AMD and Broadcom, rose.
The scandal landed on a stock already in trouble. Nvidia had lost about 21% over the previous month in an AI-stock rout and was in the red for the year before the board announced its review. The apology did not create the selling, and it has not ended it.
China denies, and Megaspeed is back in focus
Beijing rejected the spying narrative. Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said on Monday that the "so-called Chinese spy narrative" was unsubstantiated. Beijing has also called the allegations "baseless and purely slanderous smears against China".
The denial matters less than the second thread. Megaspeed is a major Nvidia customer in South-East Asia, and its chip sales are under separate scrutiny. The New York Times reported that the Justice Department is running a criminal inquiry into Megaspeed. Megaspeed denies taking part in illegal hardware transfers, and Nvidia says its compliance audits found no export violations. None of this has been proved.
What traders are pricing
The sharpest market reading is not about Huang's job. Traders put the chance that Nvidia is the world's largest company at the end of December at 25.5% (as of 9 November), down 31.5 points in a week and 9 points on the day. Apple stands at 73%, up 34 points in a week. The Nvidia contract has traded more than $1.8mn.
A week ago the order was reversed, with Nvidia at 63.5%. Most of that fall predates the affair: it came during an AI-stock rout, and Monday's slide has pushed it further. The market is treating the crown as lost to a sector sell-off first and a governance problem second.
The market for Huang's own future is far calmer. Traders put the chance that he announces his resignation or removal by 31 December at 14.5%, in a market that has seen about $290,000 of trading.
Set side by side, the two prices say something specific. Traders see little chance Huang is gone by year end, yet they have still cut the odds of Nvidia ranking first by more than half. The discount is on the company's earnings and valuation, not on who runs it. That fits a Wall Street reading in which the affair is a distraction and the AI trade is the problem.
The counter-case is that the market is too relaxed about the person. Nothing in public so far links Huang to wrongdoing beyond the affair itself, and Trump's backing is a real shield. But the board's review is independent, a Justice Department inquiry into Megaspeed is under way, and Senator Cornyn's call shows support on the right is not unanimous. A finding about what Huang told Nvidia, and when, could move the removal price quickly.
What it means for markets, business and politics
Stocks and sectors Nvidia is trading on the AI cycle more than on its chief executive, and rivals including AMD and Broadcom rose on a day it fell. Apple is the beneficiary if Nvidia stays below it on market value.
NVDAAAPLAMDAVGOMarkets A 2% rise on the Dow and a 5% fall in the world's best-known chip stock show the scandal is idiosyncratic. It has not spread to the wider market.
Business Customers and partners in South-East Asia will face closer questions about where Nvidia chips end up. The Megaspeed criminal inquiry matters more to Nvidia's sales than the affair does.
Politics and policy Presidential backing makes it harder for Congress's Republican majority to act against Huang, but Cornyn's call suggests oversight hearings remain possible.
Geopolitics Beijing's denial keeps the spying story inside the US-China technology dispute, where chip exports are already contested.
What to watch
The board's review has no announced end date, so the first signal is any update from Nvidia. Beyond that, watch the Justice Department's Megaspeed inquiry and whether Congress follows Cornyn. If Nvidia stays under Apple into December, the market will have decided the crown was lost on the chart, not in the boardroom.