FAA grounds all US departures after an air traffic control communications outage, the first nationwide stop since 2023
Future Times1 min read
In 30 seconds
The FAA calls it a temporary telecommunications outage. SpaceX says Friday's Starship launch is still on track, and traders put an official US attribution to Iran at 4.9%.
- The FAA halted all US departures over what it calls a temporary telecommunications outage, the first nationwide stop since 2023
- Traders put an official US attribution of the outage to Iran by 30 November at 4.9%
- SpaceX says Starship Flight 15 is still on track, and traders give liftoff by midnight ET a 68% chance
The odds
Polymarket · finalFAA lifts nationwide ground stop by midnight Friday ET
Resolved yes71% when this was published
- Nationwide ground stop lifted by November 13, 10:00 PM ET100%Resolved yes
- Nationwide ground stop lifted by November 14, 12:00 PM ET100%Resolved yes
- FAA outage attributed to Iran1%
The Federal Aviation Administration ordered a nationwide ground stop on Friday afternoon, halting all departing flights from US airports "due to extraordinary circumstances and for reasons of safety". The agency called it "a temporary telecommunications outage" and said "all departing traffic should remain ground stopped until further notice". Inbound international flights are being handled "case by case". It is the first nationwide ground stop since January 2023.
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the problem is a communication issue affecting air route traffic control centres, which direct planes between airports, and that FAA technicians are investigating. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said there was "no indication as of yet" of anything "nefarious", though officials were "not ruling out anything at this point". United said flights already airborne would continue. About 7,000 flights had been delayed or cancelled, according to FlightAware.
What markets now expect
Traders put the chance that the FAA announces the nationwide stop is over by 10pm Eastern time on Friday at 55.5%, by midnight at 70.5%, and by noon on Saturday at 87%. These markets are tiny, with only a few thousand dollars traded.
They put the chance that the US government officially attributes the outage to Iran by 30 November at 4.9%. That requires a public, on-the-record statement. Suspicion or "not ruling out" does not count. Nothing reported links the outage to Iran.
SpaceX says its Starship Flight 15 launch is still on track, with a window opening at 5:45pm Eastern, and the FAA has granted the flight licence. Traders give a liftoff by midnight Eastern a 68% chance.
Why it matters
- Business: Disruption tends to grow the longer a stop lasts, because crews can reach their maximum daily duty hours.
- Geopolitics: The Iran market needs an official US attribution. Officials have so far said there is no indication of a hostile cause.
- Policy: The FAA is partway through a $12.5 billion air traffic control overhaul and has asked Congress for about $30 billion more.