FAA lifts nationwide ground stop after more than four hours as Duffy blames old routers overloaded with data
Future Times2 min read
In 30 seconds
More than 8,800 flights were cancelled on Friday and thousands more on Saturday, and Duffy wants $50 billion to replace an ageing system. Traders put an official US attribution of the outage to a hack at 4.6%.
- The FAA lifted the nationwide ground stop at 8:15pm ET Friday, and Duffy blames old routers that "got overloaded with data"
- FlightAware counted more than 8,800 cancellations on Friday, with about 2,650 more for Saturday by early morning
- Duffy wants $50 billion from Congress, and traders put an official US attribution to a hack at 4.6%
The odds
Polymarket · live, 07:52 GMTUS officially attributes the FAA outage to a hack
5% when this was published
Now · 1%
Think the market's wrong? Add your forecast and see who's closer.
- FAA outage attributed to a foreign actor1%
- FAA outage attributed to Iran1%
- What technical failure caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop: Equipment or system failure100%Resolved yes
The Federal Aviation Administration lifted its nationwide ground stop at 8:15pm Eastern on Friday, more than four hours after halting all departures from US airports over what it called a "temporary telecommunications outage". FlightAware counted more than 8,800 cancellations to or from the US on Friday, and about 2,650 more flights were cancelled for Saturday by early morning.
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy told a White House briefing that the FAA saw "instability for our radar and our communications in our centers" and shut the system down. "Our switches, our routers, actually got overloaded with data," he said, then corrected himself: "I shouldn't say they went down. They started to give us inconsistency in the data." He described the system as "analog telecom" and called for $50 billion from Congress: "This is an emergency."

Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said there was "no indication, as of yet, that this was a nefarious act against us", no cyberattack and no connection to Microsoft's outage. He said new security patches added to the older system appeared to "overwhelm" its routers. CBS News reported, citing multiple sources, that an update to the private network linking air traffic control caused a reboot and a crash.
What markets now expect
Traders put the chance that the US government officially blames a hack at 4.6%, a foreign actor at 3% and Iran at 1.3%. Each needs a public, on-the-record statement from US officials. Suspicion or "not ruled out" does not count. The three have more than $50,000 traded each.
On the technical cause, where the markets are far thinner, traders give a 98.5% chance that the government blames an equipment or system failure, and 78.5% that it cites maintenance or upgrade work.
Why it matters
- Policy: Congress approved $12.5 billion over five years last year, and President Trump asked for $30 billion more. Duffy wants $50 billion.
- Business: Duffy said recovery would be "slow" and depends on crews being available, and he expects flights to be "back up and operational" by Thanksgiving. Airlines must offer free rebooking or a refund but are not required to pay extra compensation.
- Security: Officials say the investigation is continuing.