Section
Policy and political analysis from prediction markets — who holds power and what happens next.
Gavin Newsom tops the 2028 Democratic nomination market at 24%, but three quarters of the probability is betting on someone else entirely.
With eight days until Hungary votes, prediction markets give Viktor Orbán a one-in-three survival chance that reflects structural electoral advantages, not polling noise.
The White House imposed up to 100% tariffs on imported brand-name pharmaceuticals, the largest US pharma trade barrier ever.
The Democratic presidential field remains deeply fractured, with no candidate able to unify a party still divided over strategy after 2024.
Prediction markets price Péter Magyar's Tisza party as the likely winner in Hungary, threatening Viktor Orbán's sixteen-year grip on power.
JD Vance is building a presidential campaign in all but name, and prediction markets say the GOP field is already closed.
A confirmed May summit with Xi caught prediction markets flat-footed. Semis, EVs, and ag exports face immediate repricing if a trade body advances.
Tehran dismissed as "fake news" President Trump's assertion that the US has held direct talks to end the four-week-old conflict, deepening uncertainty over whether diplomacy can avert further escalation.
President Trump announces "very good and productive conversations" with Iran and pauses strikes on energy infrastructure for five days. Prediction markets give a ceasefire just a one-in-seven chance of materialising.
The US and China are exploring a new bilateral "Board of Trade" to manage economic tensions, following what officials described as "remarkably stable" talks in Paris last week.
News, priced in. Journalism built on what prediction markets expect to happen next.
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