Policy
Trump's China Trip Is 2028 Primary Infrastructure
A diplomatic win in Beijing doesn't help the trade deficit. It helps JD Vance.
39%JD Vance wins the 2028 Republican nominationwhen published
Section
Policy & Power
Policy and political analysis from prediction markets — who holds power and what happens next.
Policy & Power · page 2Newest first
Policy
Mamata's Bengal Win Exposes the Limits of Modi's Centralisation
Phase 2 counts confirm AITC dominance as opposition concedes and TMC reframes the result as a national referendum.
59%AITC wins West Bengal 2026when published
Policy
The GOP's 2028 Race Has a Front-Runner Problem
RFK Jr. leads the Republican nomination market at 49%, but zero trading volume exposes a hollow price as Vance and Rubio split the liquid bets.
49%RFK Jr. wins 2028 GOP nominationwhen published
Policy
Europe Lost Its Trump Whisperer at the Worst Time
The EU's most reliable back-channel to the White House is shutting down weeks before the tariff clock restarts.
72%Trump talks to von der Leyen in Aprilwhen published
Policy
West Bengal’s Final Phase Arrives. The Money Already Moved.
Prediction markets have swung toward Mamata’s AITC as West Bengal’s decisive second phase goes to vote Wednesday.
59%AITC wins most seats in West Bengalwhen published
Policy
Two G7 Central Banks Named the Iran War Today. Both Held.
Canada and Japan both held rates on April 27, each citing the Iran war, as Kevin Warsh’s path to the Fed clears.
95%Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chairwhen published
Policy
Peru's Runoff Is a Dead Heat. Markets Disagree.
Prediction markets price Keiko Fujimori as the clear favourite for Peru's presidency, but polls show a tied race and history suggests traders are wrong.
66%Fujimori wins the presidencywhen published
Policy
Gunman Opens Fire at White House Correspondents' Dinner
Trump evacuated unhurt after armed suspect arrested with shotgun, handgun and knives at Washington gala.
0%Trump out as President by April 30when published
Policy
West Bengal's 92% Turnout Is Mamata's Strongest Signal
Phase 1 of India's most contested state election drew record participation, and the pattern favours the incumbent.
56%BJP wins most seats in West Bengal 2026when published
Policy
Peru's Left Won the Most Bets. Fujimori Won the Election.
The candidate who attracted the most money on prediction markets is not the one traders expect to become president.
66%Fujimori wins general electionwhen published
Policy
Britain's Consumer Confidence Just Hit a 48-Year Low
UK households are the gloomiest since records began. The political and economic pressure is compounding, but prediction markets see no crisis.
0%Starmer out by April 30Resolved no
Policy
Starmer Fires Official Over Mandelson Vetting Override
The prime minister dismissed a senior FCO official after it emerged that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting linked to Epstein ties but was appointed US ambassador anyway.
34%Starmer leaves office by end 2026when published
Policy
Iran Standoff Puts US-UK Trade Deal at Risk
Trump warns bilateral agreement "can always be changed" as Starmer resists pressure to back Washington's Iran campaign
Policy
The Map Decides the House. Tariffs Decide the Senate.
Prediction markets see Republican House control as a near-certainty but the Senate as a coin flip. The divergence reveals how much redistricting insulates one chamber while tariff risk and competitive geography leave the other exposed.
86%GOP holds House 2026when published
Policy
Trump's Silence Hands an Impeached AG the Senate Lead
Prediction markets give Ken Paxton a 62% chance of defeating John Cornyn in the Texas Republican Senate runoff, as the former president's refusal to endorse reshapes the race.
62%Paxton wins Texas runoffwhen published
Policy
Prediction Markets Price a Coin Flip on Starmer's Premiership
Polymarket contracts assign a 48.5% probability that the UK prime minister departs before year-end, with the bulk of risk concentrated after the May local elections.
49%Starmer out by Dec 2026when published
Policy
Prediction Markets Price In a Progressive Challenger for 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez surges from near-zero to 8.4% in Polymarket's Democratic nomination market as progressive allies press her to declare for 2028.
8%AOC wins Dem nominationwhen published
Policy
A 16% Frontrunner Reveals a Party Without Direction
Gavin Newsom leads Polymarket's 2028 Democratic field, but the number speaks less to his strength than to the absence of anyone else's.
16%Newsom wins presidencywhen published
Policy
Vance Flies to Budapest. The Market Shrugs.
The US Vice President campaigned for Viktor Orbán five days before Hungary's election, in a move without modern precedent that prediction markets dismissed.
65%Magyar wins PMwhen published
Policy
Winning the Primary Is Not Winning the Election
Both parties' 2028 frontrunners are priced to win their nominations but struggle in a general election, revealing a widening electability gap.
18%JD Vance wins 2028 presidential electionwhen published
