Nvidia has gone outside the building to replace Jensen Huang. Its first call was the man who runs Arm
Future Times4 min read
In 30 seconds
Days after Huang quit, the board has sounded out Rene Haas, a former Nvidia executive who now runs Arm. Traders rate him almost level with insider Ian Buck, but expect the search to run into 2027.
- Arm's US shares fell about 5% on Friday as investors weighed losing their chief executive
- Haas worked at Nvidia for seven years and is reported to be close to Huang and some directors
- Nvidia reports quarterly results on 17 November with an interim chief who is also still finance chief
What it means
- Stocks and sectorsArm now carries a key-person risk it did not have a week ago, and Friday's fall shows investors are pricing it.
- MarketsTraders are split almost evenly on whether Nvidia, with Huang gone, ends the year worth more than $4tn, at 52%.
- BusinessAn outsider from Arm would arrive with deep ties to a supplier and a partner, and to SoftBank, which is building AI…
- Politics and policyAny permanent chief inherits an export-control fight over China chips, with US lawmakers pressing for tighter limits.
What to watch
- 17 NovNvidia reports third-quarter results on 17 November, with Kress leading the call as interim chief…
The odds
Polymarket · live, 07:32 GMTNvidia names a permanent CEO by the end of 2026
down 17 points over 7dfrom 41% a week ago25% when this was published
What would move these odds
- A statement from Arm or SoftBank ruling Haas out would cut the chances of an early appointment
- Nvidia naming a search firm, or saying when it expects to finish, would push the odds up
- A weak 17 November results call could raise pressure for a quick, safe choice
Now · 24%
Think the market's wrong? Add your forecast and see who's closer.
- Next CEO of NVIDIA: Ian Buck23%down 9 points
- Next CEO of NVIDIA: Rene Haas25%down 21 points
- Jensen Huang rejoins NVIDIA by December 31, 202611%
Rene Haas spent seven years at Nvidia before leaving in 2013 for Arm, the British chip designer that Nvidia later tried and failed to buy for $40bn. Now Nvidia's board wants him back, to run the whole company. The Financial Times reported on Friday that directors had approached Haas about succeeding Jensen Huang, who resigned on 12 November after an affair with an executive US officials suspect of ties to Chinese intelligence.
Arm declined to comment. Nvidia's board did not deny the approach. It said that it was still choosing a search firm, had not formally engaged any candidates, and that "any speculation regarding individual candidates, whether internal or external, is premature."
The approach matters because it is the first sign that the board is looking well beyond Huang's lieutenants. Two days ago traders were backing the people already inside the building. They have since moved a long way towards an outsider, but they still do not expect the job to be filled quickly. They give only about a one-in-four chance that Nvidia names a permanent chief executive before the end of the year.
An insider who left, and a company Nvidia once tried to buy
Haas, 64, joined Nvidia in 2006 and rose to vice-president and general manager of its computing products business. At Arm he became chief commercial officer, then head of its chip-design products group, and chief executive in February 2022, the month Nvidia's takeover collapsed. He took Arm public on Nasdaq in 2023. The FT reported that he has a strong relationship with Huang and some Nvidia directors.
That history cuts both ways. When Nvidia and SoftBank, Arm's majority owner, abandoned the deal in February 2022, they blamed "significant regulatory challenges". Huang said then that Nvidia would support Arm "as a proud licensee for decades to come", and Nvidia kept a 20-year licence. The two companies remain partners, but their data-centre businesses increasingly overlap. Haas is also tied closely to SoftBank. In April he was reported to be in line to run much of SoftBank's international business, including its effort to build AI chips that compete with Nvidia's.
Shareholders read the approach as a real threat to Arm. Its US-listed shares closed about 5% lower on Friday. Nvidia closed about 2% lower, its sixth straight weekly fall and its longest losing run since 2012. The shares lost 13% over the week.
Traders now rate Haas almost level with Buck
Polymarket traders put the chance that Ian Buck, the veteran engineer who led the development of Nvidia's CUDA software, is named the next chief executive at 24% (as of 14 November), down 6 points in a day. Haas is at 21%, up 9 points, on only about $108,000 of trading on his name. Colette Kress, the finance chief now serving as interim chief executive, has a 10% chance of being given the job permanently, down 5 points.
The more telling number is about timing. Traders give only a 25% chance that Nvidia announces a permanent successor by 31 December. That figure rose 6.5 points on the day, but it was above 40% a week ago. Read together, the two markets say the field has widened while the timetable has stretched: the board is talking to outsiders, and outsiders take longer to hire. Prising a chief executive away from a listed company majority-owned by SoftBank would mean unwinding his roles at both.
Why the board could still surprise the market
The strongest case against the market is that Nvidia does not need a long search. Kress is in place, Buck and other insiders are known quantities, and the board may want a permanent leader before rivals and big customers start to exploit the uncertainty. Shay Boloor of Futurum Equities argued that Haas is one of the few outside candidates who would not need to be brought up to speed, which could shorten any search that does settle on him.
The other path runs back to Huang. An internal post urging the board to listen to staff drew more than 1,600 comments, several calling for his reinstatement, and Elon Musk said he would sign a petition to bring him back. Traders give Huang returning to Nvidia by the end of the year a 9% chance, up 2 points. That is a rounding error next to the search, but it has doubled in a week.
What it means for markets, business and Arm
Stocks and sectors Arm now carries a key-person risk it did not have a week ago, and Friday's fall shows investors are pricing it. Nvidia faces a leadership vacuum that traders expect to last into 2027.
NVDAARMMarkets Traders are split almost evenly on whether Nvidia, with Huang gone, ends the year worth more than $4tn, at 52%. The company's value at year end now depends as much on the hiring process as on chip demand.
Business An outsider from Arm would arrive with deep ties to a supplier and a partner, and to SoftBank, which is building AI chips to compete with Nvidia's. Customers and rivals will want to know how those ties are unwound before any appointment.
Politics and policy Any permanent chief inherits an export-control fight over China chips, with US lawmakers pressing for tighter limits. A candidate's links to Asia, and to SoftBank's dealmaking, will draw the same scrutiny that ended Huang's tenure.
What to watch
Nvidia reports third-quarter results on 17 November, with Kress leading the call as interim chief executive and finance chief. Analysts expect revenue of $108.9bn, up 91% on a year earlier, according to LSEG. Watch for any word on the search timetable, the choice of a search firm, and whether Arm or SoftBank says anything about Haas's future.
Nvidia's board has called the speculation premature. Its first known call suggests it is aiming high, and traders think aiming high takes time.