Nvidia's big backers want the door left open for Jensen Huang. Traders expect a long wait.
Future Times4 min read
In 30 seconds
Altimeter and Atreides, holding $2.1bn of Nvidia stock, urged a slow search that keeps Huang in play, and Elon Musk warned deals will be lost. Traders see a return this year as a long shot and a permanent chief as unlikely before 2027.
- Traders imply at least a two-in-three chance Nvidia ends 2026 with neither Huang back nor a permanent chief named.
- Colette Kress faces her first results call as interim chief on Tuesday 17 November.
- Arm's Rene Haas leads the succession field, but no candidate is above about one in four.
What it means
- StocksInterim leadership into 2027 means the discount on Nvidia shares stays tied to the investigation rather than to…
- BusinessIf Musk is right that key supply deals rested on handshakes, the exposure sits with the largest compute buyers and…
- ArmWith Haas the favourite, each step in Nvidia's search is also a question about Arm's own leadership.
- PoliticsThe Washington timetable, not the shareholder campaign, sets the pace.
What to watch
- 17 NovNvidia reports third-quarter results on Tuesday 17 November, its first call with Kress as interim…
- 10 DecCommerce Secretary Howard Lutnick testifies to the Senate Banking Committee on 10 December
The odds
Polymarket · live, 08:08 GMTJensen Huang rejoins Nvidia by 31 December 2026
What would move these odds
- The board's independent investigation clearing Huang of any role in a foreign intelligence effort would lift the odds
- New disclosures from the FBI, the Justice Department or Congress about Huang's Megaspeed ties would push them down
- The board formally engaging an outside candidate such as Rene Haas would cut them
Now · 11%
Think the market's wrong? Add your forecast and see who's closer.
- Jensen Huang rejoins NVIDIA by November 30, 20265%
- Jensen Huang rejoins NVIDIA by December 31, 202729%
- New NVIDIA CEO named by December 31, 202624%down 17 points
Two of Nvidia's best-known shareholders have asked its board not to close the door on the man who quit as chief executive on 12 November. In a letter posted on X on Friday by Altimeter Capital's Brad Gerstner and co-signed by Atreides Management's Gavin Baker, they urged the directors to "pursue a slow, measured, and deliberate process regarding the future leadership of Nvidia that leaves all options on the table, including the potential return of Jensen Huang."
The letter stops short of demanding his reinstatement. Its real request is for time: no rushed replacement "before all the facts are known". On Saturday Elon Musk added a commercial warning on X, saying Huang had driven Nvidia's supply chain brilliantly and that many deals rested on a handshake with him rather than a written contract. "Without Jensen, at least some of those critical deals will be lost," he wrote. Nvidia declined to comment on his post.
Traders are not betting on a comeback soon, but they do expect the board to take its time. Polymarket traders put the chance that Huang rejoins Nvidia by 31 December at 9.9% (as of 14 November), and give only 23.5% to a permanent chief being named by then. Taken together, those prices imply at least a two-in-three chance that Nvidia ends the year with neither: no Huang and no permanent successor, just interim leadership.
A shareholder campaign with $2.1bn behind it
Altimeter held 9.4mn Nvidia shares worth nearly $1.9bn at the end of June, making Nvidia its largest disclosed equity holding. Atreides held 1.2mn shares worth nearly $250mn. That is a small slice of a company worth roughly $4tn, but they are not alone. A "Stand with Jensen" petition claims more than 100,000 signatures, including more than 5,000 current Nvidia employees. Musk says he has signed it.
Huang resigned as president, chief executive and director on 12 November, amid an independent board investigation into whether he "has been the target of a foreign intelligence effort". Reports have tied him to Alice Huang, who worked with Megaspeed, a Singapore company under Justice Department investigation over the possible diversion of restricted Nvidia chips to China. Colette Kress, finance chief for 13 years, is interim chief executive and keeps the CFO role. The board says it is selecting a search firm and has not formally engaged any candidates. No public response to the letter has been reported.
The pressure has a price. Nvidia shares fell about 4% on Thursday and another 2.01% on Friday, closing the week down 12.75% and below a $4tn market value for the first time since July 2025.
Why traders see a comeback as a 2027 story
Traders give 6.1% to Huang rejoining by 30 November, 9.9% by year end and 28.5% by the end of 2027. The odds nearly triple between the end of this year and the end of next. Traders treat a return less as a reversal than as the possible end of a long investigation, roughly the process Gerstner and Baker asked for.
Near-term odds are rising, though. The year-end figure has more than doubled from 4.6% a week ago, adding 2.1 points in the past day as the letter and Musk's posts landed.
The outsider still leads the succession race
The market on who leads Nvidia next points the other way. Arm's Rene Haas, whom the Financial Times reported the board had approached, is the favourite at 25.7%, down from 46.5% a week ago. Nvidia's Ian Buck has dropped 7 points in a day to 17.5%. Kress has gained 4 points in a day to 11.4%, though she stood at 44% a week ago, and Huang staying on as the answer is priced at 10.5%.
No one is above about one in four, so the field is split. But the shape is telling. An insider outcome, Buck, Kress or Huang, adds up to about 39%, more than Haas alone.
Why the investors could still be right
The case for Huang's return rests on Musk's point: Nvidia depends on relationships with suppliers, customers and governments that Huang built personally. Asian governments have tried to steady nerves. South Korea's science ministry said Nvidia had reaffirmed its plan to supply 260,000 advanced GPUs, and Taipei's city government said Nvidia's planned overseas headquarters remains on track. Japan's deputy chief cabinet secretary, Masanao Ozaki, said it was too early to assess the impact. If the board's investigation finds Huang was a target rather than a risk, the argument that Nvidia cannot replace him gets stronger.
The obstacle is that the investigation is not only the board's. The Megaspeed case sits with the Justice Department, and Huang has been asked to testify to Congress. A board that reinstated Huang before those processes ended would be taking a regulatory risk that no letter can remove.
What it means for markets, business and politics
Stocks Interim leadership into 2027 means the discount on Nvidia shares stays tied to the investigation rather than to earnings. Traders give roughly even odds, 51.5%, that Nvidia is worth more than $4tn at year end without Huang in charge.
NVDAARMBusiness If Musk is right that key supply deals rested on handshakes, the exposure sits with the largest compute buyers and component suppliers, who may now press for written commitments.
Arm With Haas the favourite, each step in Nvidia's search is also a question about Arm's own leadership.
Politics The Washington timetable, not the shareholder campaign, sets the pace. Congressional findings will matter more to Huang's prospects than petitions or posts.
What to watch
Nvidia reports third-quarter results on Tuesday 17 November, its first call with Kress as interim chief. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick testifies to the Senate Banking Committee on 10 December. A sharp rise in the year-end comeback odds would suggest traders think the board is listening to Gerstner; a permanent appointment would end the debate.
For now, the shareholders and the market agree on one thing: Nvidia is in no hurry, and the longer the wait, the better Huang's chances.