Spain's first general strike in 14 years was about rents. The election it precedes looks set to end Sánchez's run
Future Times5 min read
In 30 seconds
Unions said they shut ports and car plants over housing costs 18 days before a snap vote. Traders expect the right to win it and Sánchez to be gone by the end of January, with the timetable set by coalition arithmetic rather than the ballot.
- Unions claimed 90% stoppages at ports and car plants; employers said turnout was low in most sectors
- Traders give the PP an 84.5% chance of winning on 29 November and a PP-Vox majority 93.5%
- The market puts Sánchez's exit after New Year: 41% by 15 January, 77.5% by 31 January
What it means
- Housing policyA PP-Vox government would favour new construction over controls.
- Stocks and sectorsLandlords, build-to-rent developers and mortgage lenders such as Santander and BBVA face less risk of rent caps and…
- PoliticsHousing is now the dividing line of the campaign, and unions that also want a new minimum-wage deal have shown they can…
What to watch
- 12 NovOn Thursday 12 November the government will try to get parliament's standing committee to ratify…
- 29 NovSpaniards vote on 29 November
The odds
Polymarket · live, 05:56 GMTPP wins Spain's 29 November election
down 8 points over 7dfrom 90% a week ago85% when this was published
Signals to watch
- Any fall in the 31 January price below 50% would signal that traders expect talks between the PP and Vox to stall.
Now · 82%
Think the market's wrong? Add your forecast and see who's closer.
- Next Prime Minister of Spain: Alberto Núñez Feijóo86%down 4 points
- Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority90%down 1 point
- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 202612%down 3 points
Millions of Spanish workers walked out on Wednesday in the country's first general strike in 14 years, and unions said ports and car plants were largely idle. UGT and CCOO, the two largest unions, claimed 90% participation in the automotive and port sectors, 85% in meat processing and 82% in waste collection. The CEOE employers' federation said participation was low in most sectors and varied by region.
The 24-hour walkout, under the slogan "Salaries. Housing. Prices.", targets the cost of a roof. "There is no salary that can cope with the price of housing in this country," said Pepe Álvarez, UGT's secretary-general. But it lands 18 days before a snap general election on 29 November. Prediction markets suggest the strike will not change who governs next: traders expect the People's Party (PP) to win and Pedro Sánchez to leave office in January, once a successor has assembled a majority.
A strike called "against the government to be"
The disruption was real but uneven. Shops and factories closed or slowed, and roadblocks, some with burning tyres, went up in Barcelona. At Mercamadrid, the capital's wholesale market, CCOO Madrid said police used pepper spray on protesters, one person was arrested and 13 needed medical attention.
The politics were sharper than the picket lines. Miguel Tellado, the PP's spokesman, called it "not a general strike; it is an electoral strike... not against the government in power, but rather against the government to be." Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the PP leader, called the strike a "serious mistake" and warned that the unions risked being tied to Sánchez for good. Sánchez cast it as solidarity rather than protest: "This is not a strike against anyone, but rather one in favour of a common response from all levels of government."
Prices nobody in Madrid has been able to cap
The grievance is not in dispute. The National Statistics Institute's house price index rose 12.2% in the year to the second quarter of 2026, and second-hand homes rose 12.9%. Average rents have almost doubled in a decade. Spain's Youth Council puts the average rent at 98.7% of a young person's income, against the 30% that public bodies usually recommend.
Supply explains much of it. The Bank of Spain's annual report, published in June, estimated a shortfall of about 750,000 homes accumulated between 2021 and 2025. In 2025 about 240,000 households were formed but only 92,000 homes were completed, and the central bank expects the gap to widen.
Sánchez's answer collapsed on 2 October, when Congress rejected two decrees that would have extended protection from eviction for vulnerable tenants to 2030, extended expiring leases by two years, tightened rules on seasonal and room lets and barred "vulture funds" from buying homes until 2028. The PP, Vox and the Catalan party Junts voted no. Three days later Sánchez called the election, framing it as a choice against a "far-right coalition".
Traders see a right-wing majority, and a slow handover
The market verdict is lopsided. Traders give the PP an 84.5% chance of winning the most seats on 29 November (as of 11 November), down 3 points in a week but up 2 on the day of the strike. They give Feijóo an 88.5% chance of becoming the next prime minister.
The bloc figure is stronger still. Traders put the chance that the PP and Vox together win a majority of the 350 seats at 93.5%, higher than the chance of the PP finishing first. That fits the most recent poll for El País and Cadena SER, which put the PP on 31.9%, the Socialists on 29.9% and Vox on 18%, and projected 190 seats for the two right-wing parties, comfortably above the 176 needed.
The timing is where the markets add something polling cannot. Traders give only a 13.5% chance that Sánchez is out of office by 31 December, on more than $500,000 of trading. That rises to 41% by 15 January and 77.5% by 31 January. The point at which his departure becomes more likely than not falls in the second half of January. That is what Spanish procedure implies: the new parliament must convene, the king must consult party leaders and a candidate must win an investiture vote, with Sánchez staying on as caretaker throughout.
The 15 January price has fallen 10.5 points in a week: traders are pushing back the date of the handover, not doubting it. The gap between Feijóo's 88.5% and the 77.5% for a January exit points the same way, implying a real chance that talks with Vox drag into February.
What could still save Sánchez
The case against the market is turnout. The strike is an attempt to mobilise left-leaning voters around the issue that angers them most. "The Left needs the workers of this country to mobilise," said Verónica Martínez of Sumar. A two-point poll gap for first place is small, and a PP that wins but needs Vox's votes could still face a hard negotiation. Traders put the chance that the PP fails to finish first at about one in six.
What it means for housing, markets and politics
Housing policy A PP-Vox government would favour new construction over controls. Both parties oppose intervention beyond incentives to build, so the eviction protections to 2030 and the lease extensions are unlikely to return.
Stocks and sectors Landlords, build-to-rent developers and mortgage lenders such as Santander and BBVA face less risk of rent caps and eviction limits. But a slow handover keeps policy frozen until late January, and supply, not regulation, will decide whether prices cool.
SANBBVAPolitics Housing is now the dividing line of the campaign, and unions that also want a new minimum-wage deal have shown they can stop ports and factories. A new government that inherits a 750,000-home shortfall and double-digit price growth will own the problem quickly.
What to watch
On Thursday 12 November the government will try to get parliament's standing committee to ratify the rejected decrees. Spaniards vote on 29 November. After that, watch the date the new Cortes convene and the first investiture vote. Any fall in the 31 January price below 50% would signal that traders expect talks between the PP and Vox to stall.
The strike was about rents. The vote that follows will decide who sets them, and traders expect the answer by late January.