Trump lost Congress and promoted Stephen Miller. The cabinet purge Washington expected is fading fast

Three days after voters handed Democrats both chambers of Congress, Donald Trump answered with a promotion. Stephen Miller, the deputy chief of staff behind the administration's deportation drive, will become White House chief of staff on Monday 9 November, Trump announced on Truth Social on Friday, calling him "one of my most trusted advisors". Susie Wiles, the first woman in the job and Trump's longest-serving chief of staff, is "moving over to the Trump Political Operation".

Asked why, Trump said simply: "I wanted to make a change." The wider clear-out that much of Washington predicted after Tuesday's rout is, on the evidence of the past 48 hours, not what he intends.

Traders have reached the same conclusion. The chance that Pete Hegseth is out as defence secretary by 31 December stood at 32.5% on 7 November, down 8 points in a day and from a peak of 60% on 4 November. Traders now see his survival as the likelier outcome, and a fight with the House as the next chapter.

A rout that ended in a reward

The scale of the defeat fed talk of a purge. NBC News projects Democrats will hold at least 259 House seats in the next Congress, and Democrats have a net gain of seven Senate seats with two races still counting. Vice President JD Vance wrote on Wednesday that "the reason we lost is the war", and pressure on the Pentagon has built since.

CBS News reported on 4 November that Trump had been asking advisers whether Hegseth should stay, with Florida governor Ron DeSantis floated as a replacement. In a 60 Minutes interview taped before Wiles left, Trump said: "I love my Cabinet. I think they're good, but I'll be doing maybe a few changes. I don't want to mention who."

By Friday evening the message had hardened. Asked about further departures, Trump told reporters: "Very little. We have a great — we have a great Cabinet." Asked on Wednesday whether he was considering replacing Hegseth, he had said: "No, I think he's doing a very good job." The Pentagon said Hegseth was "100% committed" to serving out Trump's term, and Hegseth greeted Miller's promotion on X with two words: "Patriots in control."

Republicans who wanted a different lesson

The promotion has split Trump's party. Representative Marlin Stutzman of Indiana called it a "horrible decision", arguing that Miller's immigration positions "ruined a lot of our goodwill with Latino voters". Retiring Representative Don Bacon said Miller had "cost us many seats on Tuesday". One Republican lawmaker told Fox News Digital: "Stephen is a megalomaniac who should have never been given the keys to the Ferrari." Andy Harris, chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, defended Miller's "proven record focused on securing our border, combating crime".

Democrats were blunter. Hakeem Jeffries, the likely next speaker, called Miller "a dangerous xenophobe and reckless extremist". Robert Garcia, the likely Oversight Committee chairman, said Miller "should lawyer up".

Why traders expect Hegseth to stay and fight

The sharpest signal is two Hegseth prices moving in opposite directions. As his chances of leaving fell, traders lifted the probability that the House votes to impeach him before the year is out to 54% on 7 November, from under 5% on 4 November, though on only about $116,000 of trading. Traders, in other words, expect Hegseth to still be at his desk when the vote comes.

That vote could come quickly. Representative Thomas Massie, a Kentucky Republican who lost his primary this year, filed eight articles in September accusing Hegseth of, among other things, waging war on Iran without congressional authorisation. He has promised to force a vote in the lame-duck session's first week, which opens the day Miller takes over. Massie has said he gives it "better than a 50% chance of passing". Hegseth calls it a "sham".

The timeline points the same way. Traders put Hegseth's chance of going by 30 November at 22.5%, leaving only about 10 points of additional risk across December. Wider cabinet risk has eased too:

FBI director Kash Patel is the exception, edging up to 22.5% to be out by year end. Departures are also happening below cabinet level: several Justice Department officials, including Harmeet Dhillon, have resigned since Election Day.

What could still upend the market

The case for a purge has not vanished. Trump said on camera that "a few changes" were coming, advisers have been sounded out on Hegseth's future, and Senator Thom Tillis has urged him to "find a new leader at the Pentagon". If a handful of Republicans join Democrats, an impeachment would leave Hegseth facing trial in a Senate Democrats take over in January, raising the cost of keeping him. A DeSantis nomination would be the clearest sign that traders have misread the week.

Voters asked for change. Trump changed his chief of staff and, so far, kept everyone else.