Trump publicly urged Dana White to take the press secretary job. Traders still give the UFC boss under 5%.
The president's public plea is the first move in Stephen Miller's White House, where Susie Wiles's closest aide is already on his way out. Markets expect a new press secretary by year end, but not this one.
Future Times4 min read
The odds
Polymarket · live, 03:50 GMTNew press secretary named by 30 November
down 1 point over 7d40% when this was published
Now · 41%
Think the market's wrong? Add your forecast and see who's closer.
- Next Press Secretary: Dana White1%down 5 points
- Next Press Secretary: Anna Kelly8%down 10 points
- Next Press Secretary: Scott Jennings5%unchanged
Key points
- Trump publicly offered Dana White the job on Saturday; White says only that they meet Monday
- Traders give White 4.7%, behind Anna Kelly at 12.5%, for the next press secretary
- A name by 31 December is 71.5% likely, but by 30 November only 39.5%
"Dana, please take the job!" Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on Saturday, in a post offering the White House press secretary role to Dana White, the chief executive of the UFC. White, who was in London for a boxing event, said he was "flying to Washington, D.C., right now" and has a meeting with the president on Monday. "I got a lot of jobs already," he added.
It is a strange way to fill one of the most exposed jobs in Washington. It is also the clearest sign yet of how Stephen Miller's White House will work. Miller takes over as chief of staff on Monday, and the first departure is already known: Axios reported on Sunday that Richard Walters, a deputy chief of staff and one of Susie Wiles's closest lieutenants, is leaving.
The post, and the empty podium behind it
Trump called White "a violent Fighter and Warrior" and said he "will be a Press Secretary like none other". He suggested White bring UFC fighters including Khabib Nurmagomedov, Justin Gaethje and Amanda Nunes as assistants to "defend us against the Lunatic Left". White posted an image of himself at the briefing-room lectern, captioned "On to the next chapter". NBC News and CBS News both noted it was unclear whether the offer was serious.
The vacancy is real. Karoline Leavitt announced in August that she was leaving to spend more time with her young family. Her successor, Katie Zacharia, was removed on 16 October after five days.
What changed since the purge story
Our [earlier analysis](/article/trump-lost-congress-promoted-stephen-miller) argued that the cabinet clear-out Washington expected after the midterms was fading. The weekend adds a sharper distinction: the churn is coming in the White House, not the cabinet.
Wiles submitted her resignation on Thursday, a White House official told NBC News, and Trump announced on Friday that Miller would replace her. Walters is the first of her circle to follow. Political Wire, summarising the Axios scoop, said Miller's own team is expected to move into more powerful roles.
Trump told CBS's "60 Minutes" that he expects "maybe a few changes" and declined to name names. He later told reporters departures in the coming months would be "very little", and said he had confidence in Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth. Post-midterm exits so far are lower-profile: Newsweek lists the heads of the Justice Department's civil rights and national security divisions and a US attorney in Florida.
Who the market thinks gets the podium
Polymarket traders put the chance that Dana White becomes the next press secretary at 4.7% (as of 8 November). That is below Anna Kelly at 12.5%, down 6.5 points in a week, and Scott Jennings at 7.4%.
The three names together hold about a quarter of the probability; the rest sits with candidates the market has not singled out. Trump's public plea has not lifted White: his price was 6.1% a week ago. Traders appear to treat the post as a gesture, or as an opening bid that a man with a global sports business will not take.
Timing is where the market is firmer. Traders give a 39.5% chance that a new press secretary is announced by 30 November and 71.5% by 31 December (both as of 8 November), up 4.5 and 8 points on the week.
Read as a timeline, those numbers put the central expectation in December, which adds about 32 points. They also leave a 28.5% chance that no name is announced by 1 January.
The cabinet question is still open
The shake-up may not stop at the West Wing. Traders put the chance that Hegseth is out as defence secretary by 30 November at 28.5%, up 7 points in a week, and by 31 December at 42%. The price has climbed even as Trump says he has confidence in Hegseth.
Taken together, the prices suggest traders expect the press job to be filled before the Pentagon's leadership is settled.
The case against the market
The strongest argument for a higher White price is that Trump's offer is public and personal. White is a friend who has spoken at Trump's rallies, and the White House hosted a UFC event on the South Lawn in July. A president who announces a job offer on Truth Social is hard to refuse, and the two meet on Monday.
The case for a lower one is that White runs a company and says he already has "a lot of jobs". If White accepts on Monday, the 4.7% will look badly wrong. If he does not, the number was right.
What it means for markets, business and politics
Stocks and sectors TKO Group, which owns the UFC, is the one listed company directly tied to the story. A White decision to take a full-time government post would raise questions about his role there; the market's 4.7% implies investors are not pricing that in.
TKOPolitics and policy Democrats take the House in January. A name by year end would put a press team in place before that fight starts.
Defence The rising price on Hegseth leaving shows traders see the Pentagon's leadership as exposed.
Business A third press secretary since August means less predictable messaging on tariffs and regulation. Companies should expect announcements by social media post as much as from the podium.
What to watch
Monday's meeting between Trump and White is the first test, as is Miller's first day as chief of staff. Look for more of Wiles's allies to go, a formal announcement of a press secretary, and any move on Hegseth before the end of November.
The president has asked a fight promoter to do the job. The market is betting someone quieter gets it.