Trump wants Tim Cook to run Nvidia. Traders are backing the people already inside the building
Future Times4 min read
In 30 seconds
Ian Buck, a senior Nvidia data-centre executive, leads the race to replace Jensen Huang, and interim chief Colette Kress is gaining. Whoever wins inherits a Congress moving towards tighter China chip curbs.
- The permanent job is open: Kress holds it only on an interim basis, alongside her role as finance chief
- Huang is expected to face House committees within a week, possibly under oath
- Nvidia reports quarterly results on 17 November, its first test without its founder
What it means
- StocksAn insider appointment would signal continuity on the product roadmap, but not on China.
- AppleTrump's endorsement creates a distraction rather than a risk for Apple; traders give Cook little chance of leaving, and…
- BusinessCloud partners exposed to Nvidia's Asian distribution, such as Megaspeed, face closer scrutiny; any tightening of…
- PoliticsBipartisan support for chip curbs gives the White House less room to trade export licences in talks with Beijing…
What to watch
- 17 NovNvidia reports third-quarter results on 17 November, with Kress delivering them as interim chief…
The odds
Polymarket · live, 07:19 GMTIan Buck named Nvidia's next permanent CEO
down 9 points over 7dfrom 32% a week ago38% when this was published
What would move these odds
- Nvidia's board naming any permanent CEO, inside or outside, would settle the race outright
- Kress delivering steady results and guidance on 17 November would strengthen her case
- Any sign Cook is willing to leave Apple's chairmanship would lift his long-shot chances
Now · 23%
Think the market's wrong? Add your forecast and see who's closer.
- Next CEO of NVIDIA: Colette Kress12%down 32 points
- Next CEO of NVIDIA: Tim Cook3%
- Next CEO of NVIDIA: Jensen Huang (No Change)11%down 2 points
Within hours of Jensen Huang quitting Nvidia on Thursday, Donald Trump had picked his replacement. "There is only one man to take his place - TIM COOK of Apple," the President wrote on Truth Social. "A Legend replaces a Legend!"
Nvidia's board has handed the job to its finance chief, Colette Kress, on an interim basis and promised a search that will weigh internal and external candidates. Cook stepped down as Apple's chief executive on 1 September and now serves as its executive chairman.
Traders have reached a different verdict from the President's. They see the job going to someone who already works at Nvidia, and they expect that person to take over a company whose China business Congress now wants to shrink.
The engineers' candidate
As of 12 November, Polymarket traders give Ian Buck, a vice-president in Nvidia's data-centre business, a 38% chance of being named the next permanent chief executive, up from 32% a week ago. Kress is second at 15%, an 11-point jump in a day after her interim appointment. Cook trails at 4.5%, and Huang's daughter Madison, at nearly 20% a day earlier, has collapsed to 1.2%.
Interim appointments do not count for these contracts: only a permanent successor does. That makes the gap between Buck and Kress the most telling number. Even after her jump, traders think the person keeping the seat warm is unlikely to be the one who keeps it.
The analysts tracking the company read it the same way. Ben Bajarin of Creative Strategies called Buck the most logical choice. Dan Ives of Wedbush expects Kress to steady the company for about a year before an outsider takes over, which is the strongest version of the case against the market's favourite.
The whole contest has drawn less than $700,000 of trading, so the precise order deserves less weight than the shape: about half the probability sits on two insiders, and less than 5% on the President's choice.
Why Cook is a long shot
Trump's endorsement carries weight in Washington, where Nvidia now needs friends. It carries less in Santa Clara. Cook has just handed Apple to John Ternus, and has given no public sign that he wants to run a chip designer under federal investigation.
There is an awkward commercial logic too. Traders put an 85% chance on Apple finishing December as the world's most valuable listed company, up 13 points in a week, against 12.5% for Nvidia, which has fallen 14.5 points over the same span. Cook would be leaving the likely champion for a challenger that has lost more than $740bn in market value since last Friday's close.
A Congress that has changed its mind
Whoever gets the job will inherit a different Washington. House Speaker Mike Johnson said on Thursday that he favours limiting chip exports to China. "I think there's a developing consensus in Congress," he said. "Especially in the light of recent developments, it makes sense… I think it might change a few minds around here."
That is a direct threat to the strategy Huang spent years pursuing. He lobbied to ease export restrictions so that Nvidia could keep selling into China. The scandal that forced him out runs through the same channel: Alice Huang, the woman US authorities suspect of spying for Beijing, was an executive at Megaspeed, a Singapore partner of Nvidia that Washington suspects of helping Chinese companies obtain restricted chips.
Huang himself is not yet out of the spotlight. Brian Mast, the Republican chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Huang had agreed to appear and that he expected the testimony within the next week, probably under oath and in a transcribed session involving several committees. He said he would issue a subpoena if talks broke down.
Traders put the chance of Howard Lutnick, whose Commerce Department licenses Nvidia's China sales, leaving the administration before 2027 at 44.5%, up 25 points in a day. A successor to Huang may find that the official who signs the export licences has also changed.
Why the insiders could still lose
The case for an outsider is real. Michael Burry, the investor who made his name shorting the US housing market, wrote hours before the resignation that Huang had as many as 60 direct reports and delegated little. "I do not see Colette or any new CEO replacing the Don seamlessly," he wrote. A board that believes the company was built around one man may decide it needs a big name from outside to restore confidence, and that is the path that would make the market wrong.
Against that, the board's first moves have favoured continuity: an interim chief who has run Nvidia's finances since 2013 and a new chairman, Harvey Jones, who has sat on the board since 1993. The market gives only 4.1% to Nvidia naming no successor at all before the end of 2028.
What it means for markets, business and politics
Stocks An insider appointment would signal continuity on the product roadmap, but not on China. Nvidia's valuation now has to absorb export curbs that a new chief executive has less political capital to resist than Huang did.
NVDAAAPLApple Trump's endorsement creates a distraction rather than a risk for Apple; traders give Cook little chance of leaving, and Apple's lead in the race for the biggest company has widened.
Business Cloud partners exposed to Nvidia's Asian distribution, such as Megaspeed, face closer scrutiny; any tightening of export rules would hit their access to supply first.
Politics Bipartisan support for chip curbs gives the White House less room to trade export licences in talks with Beijing, whoever runs Commerce.
What to watch
Nvidia reports third-quarter results on 17 November, with Kress delivering them as interim chief and finance chief at once. Huang's appearance before House committees is expected within the next week. A permanent appointment, or a Lutnick departure, would move these numbers fastest.
Trump has named his man. Nvidia's board, and the traders watching it, are looking closer to home.