Geopolitics
Iran's New Supreme Leader Makes War and Peace Easier
Both sides need a deal. Neither will admit it first.
56%US forces enter Iran by April 30when published
Section
Geopolitics & Conflict
Geopolitics coverage powered by prediction markets — wars, elections, diplomacy, and global risk.
Geopolitics & Conflict · page 4Newest first
Geopolitics
The Strait of Hormuz Is Already Closed in the Market's Mind
Iran is acting as gatekeeper of the world's most important oil chokepoint, and prediction markets say the disruption will last at least through April.
18%Hormuz traffic normal by April 30when published
Geopolitics
The Market Thinks the Iran War Escalates Next Week and Ends in Six Weeks
Ceasefire odds jump from 14% to 48% across six weeks, but military entry surges faster. The probability gradient reveals the market's sequencing bet.
14%ceasefire by March 31when published
Geopolitics
Iran's Invisible Supreme Leader Is the Real Crisis
Three weeks into the war, the question is no longer whether a ceasefire holds. It is whether anyone in Tehran can sign one.
12%Iranian regime fall by April 30when published
Geopolitics
Trump Gives Iran 48 Hours to Open Hormuz. Markets Price 92.5% Chance He Means It.
Trump threatened to destroy Iranian power plants within 48 hours — prediction markets give diplomacy a 7.5% chance.
8%Ceasefire by March 31 (as of 2026-03-22 00:54)when published
Geopolitics
Markets Price a Lebanon Ground War at 74% — With Days to Spare
What the markets are pricing
24%Israel-Lebanon normalisation by 2027when published
