Microsoft's global outage enters a second day, disrupting Outlook, Teams and Copilot in 74 countries
Future Times2 min read
In 30 seconds
Microsoft says servers became unexpectedly unavailable and sees no sign of an attack. OpenAI and Anthropic reported problems with their Microsoft connectors, and traders put a ChatGPT outage by 30 November at 96.5%.
- Microsoft's outage has reached 74 countries, and Microsoft says it has no sign of malicious activity
- OpenAI and Anthropic reported problems with their Microsoft connectors, and Copilot was disrupted
- Traders put a ChatGPT outage by 30 November at 96.5% and another Codex outage this year at 93%
The odds
Polymarket · live, 07:18 GMTChatGPT has a partial or full outage by 15 November
up 11 points over 7dfrom 56% a week ago68% when this was published
Now · 66%
Think the market's wrong? Add your forecast and see who's closer.
- ChatGPT Outage by November 3099%up 26 points
- # of ChatGPT Outage Days in November 2026: 328%up 5 points
- Will Claude go down on __ days in November 2026: <579%up 25 points
Microsoft was still restoring Outlook, Teams, Copilot and other Microsoft 365 services on Friday, a day after the outage began on Thursday. The outage tracker Downdetector had logged reports from 74 countries and territories within about an hour. Microsoft reported "encouraging recovery progress" but gave no time for full recovery and has not named a root cause.
Microsoft says a number of servers became "unexpectedly unavailable", straining the rest. Charles Lamanna, its executive vice-president for Copilot, Agents and Platform, wrote that there was "no indication this is the result of malicious or cyber activity". Japan's government reported disrupted communications between ministries, Swiss group Richemont delayed its half-year results, and Microsoft's shares were about 2% lower in pre-market trading.
The AI tools were caught too. Copilot could not reach work email and files, and OpenAI and Anthropic reported problems with their Microsoft connectors. OpenAI's status page lists elevated errors affecting ChatGPT's Microsoft 365 connector on Thursday. Analyst Walter Pasquarelli said he saw no sign that AI systems drove the extra load.
What markets now expect
Traders put the chance that ChatGPT has a day marked as a partial or full outage on OpenAI's status page by Sunday 15 November at 67.5%, and by 30 November at 96.5%. They give another Codex outage before the end of 2026 a 93% chance, fewer than five days of Claude downtime in November 75.5%, and three ChatGPT outage days in November 26%. For the longest critical GitHub incident this month, one to three hours is the likeliest bracket at 38%. These markets are tiny, with between $121 and $8,000 traded, so they are a mood, not a forecast.
Why it matters
- Markets: Analyst Rupert Goodwins expects little short-term revenue impact on Microsoft because customers are tied to licences.
- Business: AI assistants that read email stop working when email does. Control Risks' James Owen called it a "resilience and dependency issue that has been decades in the making".
- Security: Nothing links the outage to a hack or an AI bug. But a researcher showed in April that AI coding agents from Anthropic, Google and GitHub could be hijacked by planted instructions, and none of the three issued a CVE or public advisory.
Microsoft has promised a root-cause report once recovery is complete.